IceHL EAST Predictions, Part I

With both leagues finally drafted and now in the midst of making moves, what better way to spend the time during the lockout by analyzing teams as if there were a real season coming up? You’ll find division-by-division breakdowns of all 16 teams in the EAST, with brief analyses of offensive, defensive and goaltending capabilities followed by my ratings.

Note: Potential rank is calculated using last year’s stats as the base with this year’s rosters. (2012-2013 rosters with stats as from 2011-2012) These, among other stats will be discussed in a future metrics post.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Baltimore Blue Crabs

2865 points; Overall rank: 9th

+ Parise and Tavares lead a potent, but assist-heavy forward corps (Crosby, Hall, Read, Stastny, Tanguay).

+ Very offense-minded group on the defense. (Yandle, Wideman, Burns, E. Johnson, I. White)

+ Rask is definitely the man. Varlamov could make some noise if the team provides for him.

– The offense flies/dies on injury risk. Crosby and Hall, specifically.

– Would I want to invest in Varly? Not really. Colorado still can't support him.

– Defense has a concerning lack of blocked shots. They can make a large difference.

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: Baltimore’s roster is an interesting bunch of theoreticals plugged into one roster. Will Crosby play at the level we know him to? Can Varlamov win without a team in front? Will Hall be a stud again? Will Read slump as a sophomore? You get the picture. Bubble team at best.

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Hamilton Steelcats

2703 points; Overall rank: 14th

+ A largely capable offense here, with great PPN out of most of the top 6. (H. Sedin, Franzen, Iginla, Oshie, Marchand)

+ Good offensive defense, with lots of points coming from the blueline. Bolstered by Campbell, Chara and Gonchar.

+ Luongo has potential if he lands somewhere else. That's a big IF though.

– The one goalie fly is too risky for my liking, especially when Luongo is that one guy.

– Havlat, van Riemsdyk and Perron are injury risks.

– Zidlicky and Martin are questionable, the former much moreso.

Overall Ranks: 3.33/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 2.5/5
Playoffs: There are a lot of ways Hamilton’s team can blow up, several of them involving their offense and their goaltending situations. With a real lack of depth at goaltending and a precipitous dropoff after the top guys, there could be some tough issues to overcome. The Steelcats might be in for a rough year without some changes.

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New York Guardians

3021 points; 1 injured; Overall rank: 6th

+ In an offensive dogfight, this team will be hard to beat. (Pacioretty, Hartnell, Lupul, Wheeler, Alfredsson, Ladd)

+ Lots of capable production from tons of guys (Keith, Karlsson, Del Zotto, Coburn, Leddy).

+ Nice tandem in net with Miller and Brodeur, as both have experience and get lots of stats.

– Brodeur concerns vs. expectations. Will he be an average schmo or the playoff man?

– Will the offense outpace the need for blocked shots on this team?

– Dubinsky—will he shine or falter in a new location? And will Ennis bounce back?

Overall Ranks: 4/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Guardians have a well-rounded team that should be able to provide competition for many teams in the IceHL East. There isn’t a guy on the roster that can’t do his job and this team should be competitive enough to make the postseason. Whether or not it wins a division depends on Washington.

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Washington Sentinels

3075 points; 2 rookies; 1 injured, no replacement; Overall rank: 3rd

+ Gifts aplenty on the offense, with Stamkos and three 30-goal guys. (Ryder, Couture, Pominville)

+ Good top 4 with lots of balance between points and blocked shots. (Subban, Carlson, Girardi, Hamonic)

+ Nice duo of Howard and Price. Tons of starts and tons of potential for points.

– The double rookie spin. Kreider and Huberdeau must produce.

– Reproduction of performance--can Pominville, Ryder, Landeskog put the numbers up again?

– Will Price and Howard have teams in front of them that can produce and keep them up?

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Washington looks to be the top team in their division, with a killer bunch of players. The biggest concerns are in the forward corps, with guys needed to replicate their performance and others need strong debuts. Aside from those concerns, there’s nothing stopping Washington from making a pretty deep run.

MIDWEST DIVISION

Chicago Hitmen

2803 points; Overall rank: 13th

+ Strong top 6 forwards including two 30-goal scorers (Ryan, Kane) and balanced talent (Backes, Nugent-Hopkins, Zetterberg, Ray Whitney).

+ Solid shotblocking defense that can also put up some points (Bieksa, Leopold, Vlasic, Hamhuis, Green).

+ Gustavsson might get some opportunities, and Backstrom, when healthy, is decent.

– But, the absence of a true, healthy number one goaltender raises lots of concerns.

– A slight overinvestment in Vancouver's defense and the lack of a real number 1 guy is concerning.

– How will Dupuis and Clowe pan out? Clowe needs a bounceback and Dupuis needs a Crosby.

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 3/5
Playoffs: Chicago’s team has a recurring theme throughout most of its roster: quality guys, but not many stand-out guys. The offense is probably in the best shape, but the rest of the team lacks a true number one at either defensive of goaltending positions. The lack of a guy who can stand up might sink the Hitmen. They’re not entirely out of the picture, but they might be a frustrating spoiler team.

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Detroit Motorheads

3018 points; Overall rank: 7th

+ Decent offense that can put up the points (Burrows, Simmonds, Erat, Doan). Three 30-goal scorers lead the way (Spezza, Kessel, Sharp).

+ Tough defense with good PPN (Phaneuf, Giordano) and guys who will get new looks this year will benefit (Wisniewski, Salo, Spurgeon).

+ Interesting goaltender duo with Kiprusoff and Vokoun.

– But, how many starts will Vokoun poach from Fleury? That's a tough one right now.

– Will there be repeat performances from Spezza, Doan, and Sharp?

– What kind of looks will Spurgeon and Salo get?

Overall Ranks: 4/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Detroit’s roster looks competitive enough, but until we get to the track, we won’t know if all cylinders are firing. For now, the balanced offense, gritty defense and goaltending tandem with arguably one of the best non-starting goalies in the NHL should give the Motorheads enough gas to make it to the postseason. This team reminds me heavily of Minnesota, and the two should be fighting for the top spot in the division.

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Milwaukee Lagers

2844 points; 1 injured; Overall rank: 11th

+ Solid base on offense with good balance (Kopitar, Nash, Neal, P. Kane, Okposo).

+ Nice balance on defense between points/blocked shots (Letang, Shattenkirk, Fowler, Faulk, Gilbert).

+ Niemi is solid, and Crawford should make for a good backup.

– Present injuries to Nash, Setoguchi, Kesler and Voracek take a HUGE bite out of the offense.
– Is Crawford the man in Chicago?
– How much will Gilbert and Turris benefit from full seasons in new territories?

Overall Ranks: 3.83/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Lagers are in good position to be a successful team. Most of the pieces are there, but the elephant in the room is the early decimation of the offense with all of the injuries. They’re going to need to recover soon to make it in the division. Milwaukee has a shot, but their offense needs to get back in action to make it more realistic.

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Minnesota Mammoths

3062 points; 1 rookie; Potential rank: 5th place

+ Potent offense leaves little question about the scoring ability of the Mammoth (Callahan, Moulson, Toews, Bergeron, Pavelski).

+ Strong, balanced defense with few concerns at the blueline (Carle, Garrison, Liles, Harrison, Stuart).

+ Smart tandem in net with Fleury and Lindback. Guarantee vs. projected starter balance.

– But if Lindback doesn't prove himself, there could be some issues.

– What kind of value does Yakupov have? Will Toews return to form?

– Tough to pick on the defense, but how will new destinations for Garrison and Carle work out?

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Minnesota should make it as the division winner in the Midwest. If they don't, they should come in 2nd in the Midwest and still make it in the postseason. Their biggest competition comes in the form of the Motorheads, who have a solid squad built similarly to the Mammoths.

IceHL WEST Predictions, Part II

With both leagues finally drafted and now in the midst of making moves, what better way to spend the time during the lockout by analyzing teams as if there were a real season coming up? You’ll find division-by-division breakdowns of all 16 teams in the IceHL WEST, with brief analyses of offensive, defensive and goaltending capabilities followed by my ratings.

Note: Potential rank is calculated using last year’s stats as the base with this year’s rosters. (2012-2013 rosters with stats as from 2011-2012) These, among other stats will be discussed in a future metrics post.

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

Boulder Beasts

2780 points; 2 rookies; 1 injured; Potential rank: 9th

+ Able offense highlighted by a trio of 30-goal scorers. (Malkin, Moulson, E. Kane)

+ Higher-scoring defense (Giordano, Fowler, Kulikov, Josi, Leddy) will be a benefit on the scoresheet.

+ Quick and Rinne on the same team? That is nasty as it can get.

– Will Quick return up to scratch? That's about all we got for knocking on goalies.

– Absence of blocked shots might not get offset by offensively focused defense.

– The double rookie spin (Kreider, Huberdeau) is just a risky move, even if these guys are offset by top-tier talent.

Overall Ranks: 4.33/5
Offense: 4.5/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 5/5
Playoffs: Boulder is a tough team and should be making it into the playoffs. Consider the defending champs the frontrunner for the division, even though the rest of the Mountain isn't all that far behind the Beasts.

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Calgary Cavalry

3037 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 6th

+ Offense has many assist-heavy players (Dupuis, Bergeron, Eriksson, Oshie, O'Reilly, Brown, Williams) with balanced contributions.

+ Pietrangelo and Suter are very stong pillars for Calgary's defense.

+ Starts aplenty with Hiller and Bryzgalov, as the two are the men in their towns.

– Absence of 30-goal scorers/primary goal scorers outside of Toews. No player on this roster scored 30 goals. Only one had less than 30 assists.
– Concerns about Gardiner, Ellis and White's productions compound, making the defense a little worrisome.
– Very streaky goaltending could put this team in a bind. 

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Calgary stands a good chance to make the playoffs, despite some of the outward concerns of the team. But they'll need to survive their division to make it happen, since the Mountain is a tight bunch.

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Edmonton Kodiaks

2783 points; 2 rookies; 1 injured; Potential rank: 8th

 + H. Sedin, E. Staal, Vrbata and Cole lead a powerful offense that could get deadlier with Yakupov.

+ Edler, Kronwall, Klein and Wideman lead a quality defense.

+ Kiprusoff is a solid talent, and so is Theodore if he gets momentum.

– James van Riemsdyk and N. Backstrom need bounceback years after injuries decimated them both.

– How long will Theodore be the man in Florida?

– Souray's value and Schultz's place in Edmonton are worrisome. 

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: Edmonton will likely be neck and neck with the rest of the division, but depending on how the muddled mess of forwards turn out, this team could distance itself from the rest. Just like the rest of the division, the Kodiaks stand a good shot to make it if the division doesn't eat them alive first.

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Salt Lake City Scorpions

2735 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 10th

+Two 30-goal scorers (Perry and M. Michalek) lead a strong offense rounded by assist machines. (Landeskog, Fleischmann, St. Louis)

+A healthy Lehtonen and an opportunity-seizing Lindback could be a scrappy duo.

+Powerful, but balanced defense (Boyle, Letang, Hamonic, Wisniewski, Nikitin) that contributes with points and blocked shots.

– Injury concerns run rampant about Mueller, less so about Kesler and M. Michalek.

– If Lindback falters or Lehtonen gets hurt, this duo can fall off pretty quickly.

– All solid defenders, but a bit lacking in a backup plan (Spurgeon) if multiple are hurt.

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Salt Lake City seems to be ahead of Calgary and Edmonton, but behind Boulder in a ranking that has no team more than a point behind anyone else. Salt Lake City should make the postseason, unless their divisional play is poor.

PACIFIC DIVISION

California Wave

3421 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 2nd

+ Tons of scoring potential (Stamkos, Kovalchuk, Marleau, Callahan, Elias, Krejci, Steen) make this team tough to outpace.

+ Huge shotblocking focus and nice point production from Seabrook, Gorges, Carlson, Pitkanen and Z.  Michalek. There’s loads of potential here.

+ Niemi and Elliott/Halak is just ridiculous. Easy to change with the Blues 'tenders.

– Offense is tough to nitpick. The biggest concerns here are if there’s a net regression among the forward corps. Elias might dip with age.

– Some small concerns about injuries to Pitkanen and Michalek.

– Figuring out which to lose of Niemi/Halak/Elliott if all are healthy is very tough.

Overall Ranks: 4.5/5
Offense: 4.5/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4.5/5
Playoffs: A virtual lock for the division and contender for the top spot in the West, California's stacked roster will be one that has the opportunity to ride very deep.

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Portland Pioneers

2970 points; Potential rank: 7th

+ A good offense with decent contributors (Iginla, Franzen, Marchand, Burrows, Kunitz, Whitney)

+ Filip Kuba is solid, and so is Timonen if healthy. Zidlicky could improve with a full season in NJ.

+ Bobrovsky will be the man in Columbus without question.

– Injury risks to Hossa and Roy are very large concerns.

– Not only is Timonen still recovering, this team doesn't field the base 4 guys.

– How much will Hedberg be called upon for his services if Brodeur playing well? What if Bobrovsky fails?

Overall Ranks: 2.83/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 2/5
Goalies: 3/5
Playoffs: Portland has a lot of work to become a postseason squad, but there are some pieces there. They’re just not the answers to the right puzzle. But, the playoffs are even further away if the fourth D isn’t found quick!

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Seattle Aviators

2594 points; 1 rookie; Potential rank: 15th

+ Great foundation at forward (Kopitar, Eberle, Wheeler), with an impressive 2nd tier (Ribeiro, Purcell, Henrique).

+ Awesome defense (Enstrom, Keith, Liles) with very balanced contributions.

+ Goaltending, if Schneider becomes the man, is less worrisome.

– Concerns about Hall's recovery and Gagner's streaky season take some of the luster way from the offense.

– Larsson and Green need to improve from last season to round out Seattle's defense. What role will Hamilton play for the Bruins?

– Only one goalie and Schneider might not even be the man in town. Risky tactic as long as Luongo is a Canuck and even beyond that.

Overall Ranks: 3.5/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 2.5/5
Playoffs: Seattle will need to rely on strong seasons from everyone to have a chance. Otherwise, the Aviators will likely hover near the bottom of the division.

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Vancouver Lumberjacks

2407 points; Potential rank: 16th

+ Strong top four (Pavelski, Getzlaf, Ryan, Couture) and good middlemen (Hodgson, Zajac).

+ Tons of potential with Ehrhoff, Shattenkirk and Yandle.

+ Rask and Dubnyk should be interesting--two goalies on the rise for their teams.

– Will Dubnyk have the team in front to support? Will Rask be able to last for an entire season?

– No clear number 4 defenseman (Voynov or Sbisa) and a lack of blocked shots/PPN.

– Injury risks in Duchene, Zajac and McDonald. The three missed 148 games last year.

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: Vancouver can't do worse than last year, even if their potentials don't say the same story. They probably won't make the playoffs, but are arguably California's toughest competition in the Pacific. A bubble berth is possible, but a rather large stretch.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

1. California
2. Alaska
3. Boulder
4. New Orleans
5. Salt Lake City
6. Saskatoon
7. Edmonton
8. Winnipeg
9. Northwest
10. Calgary
11. Vancouver
12. Houston 
13. Regina
14. Dallas
15. Seattle
16. Portland 

IceHL WEST Predictions, Part I

With both leagues finally drafted and now in the midst of making moves, what better way to spend the time during the lockout than by analyzing teams as if there were a real season coming up? You’ll find division-by-division breakdowns of all 16 teams in the IceHL WEST, with brief analyses of offensive, defensive and goaltending capabilities followed by my ratings.

Note: Potential rank is calculated using last season’s stats with this season's rosters. These, among other stats will be discussed in a future metrics post.

ARCTIC DIVISION

Alaska Huskies

3323 points; Potential rank: 3rd

+ A trio of 30-goal scorers (Ovechkin, Spezza, Pacioretty) highlight a potent offense. Vanek, Filppula, Stastny are solid assist machines. Malone and Read are more balanced.

+ McDonagh, Garrison, McBain, Girardi and E. Johnson are a solid group that can offer a blend of shotblocking and scoring.

+ If Smith picks up where he left off, he'll be an elite talent, and Crawford is also a solid backup.

– While this team boasts a solid offense, will Read regress? Will Ovechkin improve?

– The defense is a bit NYR-heavy and Erik Johnson is a question mark.

– Is Crawford really the man in Chicago for the long haul?

Overall Rating: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: With a team built to last and a GM who tends to make moves with uncanny timing, there's no reason to believe that Alaska wouldn't take the division again this season, though the competition should be much tougher.

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Northwest Narwhals

3113 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 4th

+ Great top five to lead the team (Neal, Kessel, J. Staal, Fisher, Lecavalier) with high point productions. Second tier (B. Sutter, Little, Okposo/Setoguchi) also has some utility.

+ Tough starting group (Phaneuf, Hedman, Streit, Bieksa) with lots of offensive/defensive point balance.

+ Fleury will be the man in Pittsburgh again. A healthy Backstrom in net will also pay dividends.

– Setoguchi is a real issue here. Underperforming previous season and injured. Large risk.

– How well will L. Schenn slot in if the starters here are injured?

– Is Backstrom ready to make a triumphant return?

Overall Rating: 4/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Narwhals have the shot to make it into the playoffs, but their fate is going to be tied to how close the battle is within the division. On paper, this team is a bubble team at worst and a bottom 4 seed at best.

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Regina Renegades

2648 points; Potential rank: 11th

+ Brad Richards is the man for Regina, and Tanguay, Nugent-Hopkins and Pominville make a nice top 4.

+ Byfuglien and Campbell lead an offensively-minded group. Visnovsky, Myers and Gilbert wrap it up.

+ Miller and Luongo are capable goaltenders that run more hot than cold. Miller's the man in Buffalo.

– Outside of the top 4 forwards, nobody in that department averages better than 2.5 points per night, so there are depth concerns.

– What if new destinations for Visnovsky and Gilbert don't pan out? There could be trouble.

– Luongo's value is closely tied to his fate. He needs to be the man somewhere. He is in limbo at present.

Overall Rating: 3.67/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: With the stiff competition the Renegades are about the face this season, Regina might have a tough time seeing the postseason. Questions about their roster also make it tougher to endorse a run.

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Saskatoon Sharpshooters

3436 points; Potential rank: 1st

+ A do-it-all group that includes strong scoring with Sharp and D. Sedin and balance from the rest of the roster (Simmonds, Backes, Laich, Glencross, Lupul, Ryder).

+ Heavy focus on shotblocking with Carle, Smid, Beauchemin, Vlasic and MacDonald.

+ Howard and Brodeur have potential if the two stay healthy. Both have the talent.

– Brodeur could have the wheels fall off at any moment. Howard might return to form, but will his team?

– Little offense from the defense outside of Carle.

– How Lupul and Laich get used in systems could change their values.

Overall Rating: 4/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Sharpshooters will need a by-the-system contribution from everyone for this team to survive: that is, the players do exactly as what their scoresheets say they can do. Saskatoon could challenge for a division title, but will likely settle as a lower four playoff seed.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Dallas Outlaws

2630 points; Potential rank: 14th

+ Young team with power (Seguin, Parise, Nash) and some lower-end guys. (Perron, Couturier, Hagelin)

+ Balanced defense with lots of quality players. (Weber, Bogosian, Del Zotto, Hamhuis and Goligoski)

+ Varlamov should be the guy in Colorado. Same with Holtby in Washington.

– Can Holtby earn that time under a new system? Will Varly have a team that can support him?

– A very top heavy roster that has a large gap between the top-end offense and the rest of the forwards. If just one of those top guys has an injury (like Nash), this spells a lot of trouble.

– Will offensive points, which this team has in spades, carry the defense?

Overall Rating: 3.5/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 3/5
Playoffs: Dallas has some work to do to get into the postseason. A stiff division won't make anything easier either.

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Houston Hellcats

2678 points; Potential rank: 11th

+ Datsyuk and Hartnell are two solid topflight options that are very complimentary.

+ Chara is quality, and Seidenberg could be good. Faulk and Burns also have potential. Staal if healthy was a steal.

+ Anderson and Ward make for an awesome duo, both getting at least 30 wins and 3 SOs.

– Concerns about the return of Horton, injuries of Koivu and Samuelsson and age of Jagr and Doan.

– Boston D overinvestment and injury risks to Burns and Staal are concerns.

– Should the Senators/Hurricanes start sinking, the goalies will suffer fast.

Overall Rating: 3.16/5
Offense: 3/5
Defense: 3/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: While Houston will likely have some trouble this season with the competition, the Hellcats could make some noise up until the very end of the season but only if everyone fires on all cylinders. A bubble team at best.

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New Orleans Gators

3043 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 5th

+ Strong forward crew (Giroux, Thornton, Zetterberg, Gaborik, Selanne, Stafford) should pump out the points on a nightly basis.

+ Solid, if unspectacular defense (Subban, Johnson, Whitney, Gonchar and Kaberle) that can put up where it needs to.

+ Equal parts proven talent and risk with Lundqvist and Reimer in net.

– Returns of Gaborik and Jokinen from injury might make a difference.

– No real huge standout on the defense here.

– Is Reimer the guy? Can he return to form after last season's injury debacle?

Overall Rating: 3.83/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Gators are a strong team that can call on many different parts of their roster to produce.  If it's even possible, the Gators might sneak up on unsuspecting teams and crush them. Potential division-winners, if not a dark horse to run the distance.

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Winnipeg Winterhawks

2638 points. Potential rank: 13th

+ Solid top six (Crosby, Tavares, Lucic, Hornqvist, Ladd, Plekanec) with good potential if the leader remains healthy.

+ Defense follows a similar build as offense. Killer leader (Karlsson), lots of solid talent surrounding it (Doughty, Ekman-Larsson, Leopold) and one big question. (Markov)

+ Two solid goaltenders (Price and Pavelec) with the ability to have awesome years.

– Concerns about Havlat, Heatley and Crosby hinder the offensive potential.

– Markov has played 20 games in the last two seasons. Will he play 20 games this year?

– See the Houston goaltending issue: if the Canadiens/Jets begin to falter, watch out.

Overall Rating: 3.83/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: Might need to win the division to make it into the playoffs, but Winnipeg is on near-even footing with New Orleans. The Winterhawks have a shot to make it in, but it's not going to fall into their laps as easily as it could for the Gators.

IceHL EAST Expansion Draft

Hi everyone, Thomas Ogilvie here — newly appointed GM of the Hartford Mariners. As it’s my first season of playing fantasy hockey, I’m going to write a series of posts through the year detailing the experiences I have and decisions I make in my first season in the IceHL. I am familiar with the head-to-head format, having a few seasons of fantasy baseball under my belt, so hopefully the transition won’t be too difficult.

My first decisions were in the expansion draft last week. As you’re probably aware, once the existing teams had selected up to four keepers, the remaining players became free agents and it was over to me. The only limitation on my pick was that the total points of the four players (based on last year’s totals) couldn’t exceed 1000. There were different limits if I picked fewer players but I saw no reason not to get four, especially as I’ll be picking 16th in Round 5 of the draft proper.

The Picks

• Brad Richards
• Shea Weber
• Ilya Bryzgalov
• Jeff Skinner

I wanted to get balance with my picks — without wanting to force it if the right players weren’t available. I wanted a forward, a defenseman, and a goalie. Brad Richards was my first choice. I think that he’ll put up better numbers than last year now that he’ll be playing with Rick Nash.

Next was Shea Weber, who’s still a solid defenseman even if the Predators have taken a step back as a team.  It remains to be seen whether losing Suter and having nothing resembling an offense in front of him knocks his value significantly. He might not be value-for-money for Nashville, but at least that’s not a concern for me.

I knew I wanted a goalie, as I’m lead to believe that this position gets pretty thin pretty quickly, and fantasy teams can live and die by who’s in between the pipes. Bryzgalov may have had a topsy-turvy season with the Flyers, with a particularly dreadful postseason, but he’s playing with a strong team in front of him and when he’s on form there’s no doubt he’s an elite goalie.  I think he’ll see more starts this year with Bobrovsky gone.

Finally, I decided to take a gamble on Jeff Skinner. The only other player I gave serious consideration to was Scott Hartnell, who I don’t think will have as good a season as last year, and I had insufficient points to take him as my fourth pick anyway. Skinner is primed for a breakout season and was available cheap. My feeling is he’s good for at least 200 points this season (assuming 82 games get played).

I’m happy with my picks. The next step is augmenting them with a solid draft. I’ll be back after that with another post, and will continue to give you my perspective as both a newbie to the IceHL and a rookie fantasy GM! Until then, let’s go Mariners — the Hart and Soul of the IceHL!

Mammoth Review: Preparing to Draft

Hey folks, Matt Riegler here stoked to be entering season two as the Minnesota Mammoths GM and thankful to Chris for allowing me an opportunity to take part in several outreaches for the league, including writing in this blog. 

As a returning GM I'll admit that I'm a bit worried that I'll make the wrong keeper selections. More specifically, I'm worried that I'll trust too highly in a player who's in his late 20s and had a career high shooting percentage last year. I'm looking at you Mr. Callahan and Mr. Pominville.

Coming into last season's draft, my goal was simply to spread the scoring (points, not goals) burden across as many people as I could. I figured that as long as my selections saw top six minutes, played special teams (at least one side) and blocked half a shot a game, that'd mean he'd be less likely to go into a slump. This couldn't have worked out better as Pavelski, Moulson, and Fleury all had career years to go along with Cally and Pommy. Plus, I received near-career years from several other players. 

Alas, this was a (dreaded) head-to-head league where a bad week at the wrong time can end your season, or worse, everything goes right and your opponent finds a way to still beat you. This is exactly what happened to me in the semi-finals last year against the eventual champion North Carolina Nighthawks. He handed me my walking papers 155-141 in our one-week battle.

So the questions now become, how do I take the next step? Where was I deficient last season?

I only finished in the bottom half of the League in assists, which was a natural casualty given my concentration on skilled, grinding forwards who also play special teams — and I don't plan on changing that. I was also fortunate that my players managed to avoid the injury bug for the most part of last season.

What killed me, though, was Toews going out with a concussion and missing our playoffs. That's just bad timing. Can't do anything about that one. Similar goes for Fleury, who was already showing signs of breaking down. My goalies only gave me five points in my final matchup in the Winner's Bracket, the Nighthawks got 18 from Brodeur.

So the answers to my questions actually lie within the heart of my team philosophies, be really good at everything and don't get unlucky. The latter may be unavoidable by nature, but being really good at everything is a big ol' can-do. I don't mean to sound arrogant, but I believe in my ability to do my homework and draft and trade well enough to succeed at a high level. And doing it against all of you just makes all the more worthwhile! This is easily the smartest hockey crowd I've ever competed with! Thank you for that. 

As for my Keepers... Callahan, Toews, Moulson, and Weber. There's still a chance I make an edit, but I'm 99% sure that's my four. As for the rest of the East? Only a few other teams have tipped their hands:

• Atlanta Arsenal 
  Marleau, Carter, Fleischmann, Rinne
• North Carolina Nighthawks
  Eric Staal, Vanek, Ribeiro and either Carle or Gorges
• Washington Sentinels 
  Stamkos, Couture, Landeskog and Howard

Everyone else has either elected to keep their cards hidden or have yet to reactivate their Twitter accounts. But that doesn't mean we can't take a look at the most likely Keeper candidates. My expectations are based purely on how irreplaceable the given player might be, as well as trying to be well-rounded.

Baltimore Blue Crabs
Crosby, Spezza, Tavares, Niemi

Boston Colonials 
Malkin, Giroux, Sharp, Backstrom (forward)

Chicago Hitmen 
Nugent-Hopkins, Zetterberg, Backes, Ryder

Detroit Motorheads
Seguin, Kessel, Eriksson, Kiprusoff

Hamilton Steelcats 
Henrik Sedin, Iginla, Jordan Staal, Chara

Milwaukee Lagers 
Nash, Neal, Letang, Mike Smith

Montreal Olympiques
Kovalchuk, Perry, Ryan, Crawford

New York Guardians
Patrice Bergeron, Pacioretty, Karlsson, Ryan Miller

Quebec Armada
Daniel Sedin, Byfuglien, McDonagh, Lundqvist

Tampa Bay Barracudas
St. Louis, Lecavalier, Dan Boyle, Quick

The St. Louis Archers have narrowed down their possible Keepers to Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Pietrangelo, Gaborik, Hossa, Perron, Luongo and Price. Given some of the injury histories and possible teams they'll be suiting up for, I think it's safe to eliminate Gaborik, Hossa and Price from this list. While Perron had a remarkable comeback last season, he's still not as valuable as Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Pietrangelo and Luongo can be.

The Hartford Mariners, the IceHL EAST's expansion team, will have a pre-determined budget and players will be valued based on their fantasy point totals from last season. The Expansion Draft will take place in the week following the Keeper deadline, which is 9/16. They'll send a list of the four players they'd like to add to the commissioner and go from there.

With that, I leave it to you my fellow IceHl GM's and fans. Let the great pre-draft debates begin!