IceHL Starters and Stitches

Hey folks, this’ll be a daily running cheat sheet for all your start-’em or sit-’em needs. We’ll be covering #IceHL players who are otherwise questionable for tonight’s action with sources from around the NHL. 

Tonight's action includes (all times EST):

Devils - Oilers @ 930   |  Rangers - Kings @ 1030

Devils

Goalie: Brodeur

Out: Jacob Josefson

Injured:  Mattias Tedenby (LBI - D2D)

In: -

Sources: Tom Gulitti | RotoWorld

Kings

Goalie: Jonathan Quick

Out: Daniel Carcillo

Injured: -

In: -

Sources: Kings PR | Kings Insider

Rangers

Goalie: Lundqivst

Out: Hagelin, Fast

Injured: Hagelin (Shoulder - Indef)

In: Callahan

Sources: Steve Zipay | Curtis Lupke | Pat Leonard |  Blueshirts United | RotoWorld

Oilers

Goalie: Jason Labarbera

Out: Sam Gagne, Ryan Smyth

Injured: Sam Gagne (Mouth - Indef)

In: Nugent-Hopkins

Sources: Jack Michaels | Bob Stauffer | Edmonton Journal | RotoWorld

Conflicts of Interest

And there it was again, that familiar twinge of angst and turmoil over whether or not to accept a proposed offer that probably does make my team better, but it sacrifices the comfort in not having to root for direct opponents. 

Currently, between the two teams I care most about this season, I have five players that also compete in my Rangers' Atlantic division. In addition, I have several more players whom I more or less described as high-risk just because of their home city in my previous article. Mix in the the fact that this year's scoring leaders are a bit screwy, Keith Aucoin is numerically more valuable than Phil Kessel through the first 20 of 99 days of the season and you have yourself a conundrum or three.

But what if this is just an anomalous year? What if this is the year where Daniel Winnik continues to outpace John Tavares and Alex Edler over Sidney Crosby and that's just the way it will be? What can you do as an owner do to help combat anomalies?

First, the angst of owning a rival's player needs to be thrown out the window. Yes, this is an anomalous year and you have to stick to not just what you know but what you believe. Yes, I believe that Matt Moulson will be more valuable than both Sedins combined this year because reasons X, Y, Z. 

Second, who's in prime position to capitalize this season? The growing trend, one I'm surprised the Penguins don't employ more frequently, is to load up with a super line during even strength. The Rangers, Oilers, Stars (prior to Whitney's injury), Bruins, Senators, Sabres, Bolts, Hawks, Canucks and Ducks all form a hero-line with their top three offensive threats. Some like the Sabres and Rangers only win when they succeed, while others like the Hawks and Canucks have found additional ways. Of course some teams like the Bruins and Ducks have recently mixed up their top-six, but that doesn't seem like a lasting trend given how dominant they can be with all three on the same line. 

Herein lies the trick though: teams like the Bruins, Hawks, Ducks, Oilers and Bolts are deep enough for two dynamic scoring lines. If/when they split, you want the David Krejcis, Viktor Stalbergs, Daniel Winniks, and other No. 6 forwards getting time with all-stars and future hall of famers — and that's nothing new. That's standard year-to-year regardless, but this year's compressed schedule has simply made them more valuable. 

So get out there and mine for the hot players you can ride, the cold stars you can scoop up for tier-two career year performers, and drop the guys who just ain't cutting it and don't have enough trade value because we don't trade picks.

There are 110 players ahead of Henrik Sedin's 14 total fantasy points in the IceHL EAST, 109 in the WEST currently on the free agent wire coming into Thursday night's games. You tell me which is the anomaly. 

Philosophical Hedging

Every season brings on new considerations, new guarantees and possibilities that hopefully lead to success. In the vaunted IceHL, within a truncated season no less, fantasy success seems as attainable as it is fragile.

Are twilight-year veterans like Jagr, Alfredsson and notorious slow-starter Iginla going to be helped by the lockout? How about neophytes like Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, and Karlsson? Surely a compacted schedule effects them least of all.

Truth is, as it always does in sports, chemistry and luck will have a bigger impact than we can (or care to) quantify. That's why you should hedge your bets this season. Three games in four nights for ten weeks — or in other words, 48 games in 99 days, plus playoffs is torture for anyone. Travel will matter more than ever, especially for teams near the Central and Eastern Time Zone lines. That's why players in Dallas, Winnipeg, Minnesota, Denver, Vancouver, Alberta and Florida are particularly ominous to own. (Full disclosure — I have six such players. Wanna trade?) Give me just Kessel and Giroux over the Sedins, Parise, Benn and the rest of the farflung stars combined. And we haven't even discussed defensemen or goalies yet.

Speaking of which, need a tender? Don't worry about it. As long as his team makes the playoffs, he'll score enough points. But be sure to have a solid backup on hand in case he breaks down.

I think it's also important to note how important chemistry plus opportunity will be this season. Can't produce if they're not out there, right? Prime minutes mean everything this year, including special teams time.

Want to know how I'm managing this year? By being aggressively shrewd. Mining for opportunities with chemistry and luck while limiting detrimental factors. That's where the point-multipliers lie. That's what'll be lead to fantasy success.

Mammoth Review: Preparing to Draft

Hey folks, Matt Riegler here stoked to be entering season two as the Minnesota Mammoths GM and thankful to Chris for allowing me an opportunity to take part in several outreaches for the league, including writing in this blog. 

As a returning GM I'll admit that I'm a bit worried that I'll make the wrong keeper selections. More specifically, I'm worried that I'll trust too highly in a player who's in his late 20s and had a career high shooting percentage last year. I'm looking at you Mr. Callahan and Mr. Pominville.

Coming into last season's draft, my goal was simply to spread the scoring (points, not goals) burden across as many people as I could. I figured that as long as my selections saw top six minutes, played special teams (at least one side) and blocked half a shot a game, that'd mean he'd be less likely to go into a slump. This couldn't have worked out better as Pavelski, Moulson, and Fleury all had career years to go along with Cally and Pommy. Plus, I received near-career years from several other players. 

Alas, this was a (dreaded) head-to-head league where a bad week at the wrong time can end your season, or worse, everything goes right and your opponent finds a way to still beat you. This is exactly what happened to me in the semi-finals last year against the eventual champion North Carolina Nighthawks. He handed me my walking papers 155-141 in our one-week battle.

So the questions now become, how do I take the next step? Where was I deficient last season?

I only finished in the bottom half of the League in assists, which was a natural casualty given my concentration on skilled, grinding forwards who also play special teams — and I don't plan on changing that. I was also fortunate that my players managed to avoid the injury bug for the most part of last season.

What killed me, though, was Toews going out with a concussion and missing our playoffs. That's just bad timing. Can't do anything about that one. Similar goes for Fleury, who was already showing signs of breaking down. My goalies only gave me five points in my final matchup in the Winner's Bracket, the Nighthawks got 18 from Brodeur.

So the answers to my questions actually lie within the heart of my team philosophies, be really good at everything and don't get unlucky. The latter may be unavoidable by nature, but being really good at everything is a big ol' can-do. I don't mean to sound arrogant, but I believe in my ability to do my homework and draft and trade well enough to succeed at a high level. And doing it against all of you just makes all the more worthwhile! This is easily the smartest hockey crowd I've ever competed with! Thank you for that. 

As for my Keepers... Callahan, Toews, Moulson, and Weber. There's still a chance I make an edit, but I'm 99% sure that's my four. As for the rest of the East? Only a few other teams have tipped their hands:

• Atlanta Arsenal 
  Marleau, Carter, Fleischmann, Rinne
• North Carolina Nighthawks
  Eric Staal, Vanek, Ribeiro and either Carle or Gorges
• Washington Sentinels 
  Stamkos, Couture, Landeskog and Howard

Everyone else has either elected to keep their cards hidden or have yet to reactivate their Twitter accounts. But that doesn't mean we can't take a look at the most likely Keeper candidates. My expectations are based purely on how irreplaceable the given player might be, as well as trying to be well-rounded.

Baltimore Blue Crabs
Crosby, Spezza, Tavares, Niemi

Boston Colonials 
Malkin, Giroux, Sharp, Backstrom (forward)

Chicago Hitmen 
Nugent-Hopkins, Zetterberg, Backes, Ryder

Detroit Motorheads
Seguin, Kessel, Eriksson, Kiprusoff

Hamilton Steelcats 
Henrik Sedin, Iginla, Jordan Staal, Chara

Milwaukee Lagers 
Nash, Neal, Letang, Mike Smith

Montreal Olympiques
Kovalchuk, Perry, Ryan, Crawford

New York Guardians
Patrice Bergeron, Pacioretty, Karlsson, Ryan Miller

Quebec Armada
Daniel Sedin, Byfuglien, McDonagh, Lundqvist

Tampa Bay Barracudas
St. Louis, Lecavalier, Dan Boyle, Quick

The St. Louis Archers have narrowed down their possible Keepers to Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Pietrangelo, Gaborik, Hossa, Perron, Luongo and Price. Given some of the injury histories and possible teams they'll be suiting up for, I think it's safe to eliminate Gaborik, Hossa and Price from this list. While Perron had a remarkable comeback last season, he's still not as valuable as Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Pietrangelo and Luongo can be.

The Hartford Mariners, the IceHL EAST's expansion team, will have a pre-determined budget and players will be valued based on their fantasy point totals from last season. The Expansion Draft will take place in the week following the Keeper deadline, which is 9/16. They'll send a list of the four players they'd like to add to the commissioner and go from there.

With that, I leave it to you my fellow IceHl GM's and fans. Let the great pre-draft debates begin!