Entries by Tony P | Saskatchewan Snipers (8)

Friday
Oct122012

IceHL WEST Predictions, Part II

With both leagues finally drafted and now in the midst of making moves, what better way to spend the time during the lockout by analyzing teams as if there were a real season coming up? You’ll find division-by-division breakdowns of all 16 teams in the IceHL WEST, with brief analyses of offensive, defensive and goaltending capabilities followed by my ratings.

Note: Potential rank is calculated using last year’s stats as the base with this year’s rosters. (2012-2013 rosters with stats as from 2011-2012) These, among other stats will be discussed in a future metrics post.

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

Boulder Beasts

2780 points; 2 rookies; 1 injured; Potential rank: 9th

+ Able offense highlighted by a trio of 30-goal scorers. (Malkin, Moulson, E. Kane)

+ Higher-scoring defense (Giordano, Fowler, Kulikov, Josi, Leddy) will be a benefit on the scoresheet.

+ Quick and Rinne on the same team? That is nasty as it can get.

– Will Quick return up to scratch? That's about all we got for knocking on goalies.

– Absence of blocked shots might not get offset by offensively focused defense.

– The double rookie spin (Kreider, Huberdeau) is just a risky move, even if these guys are offset by top-tier talent.

Overall Ranks: 4.33/5
Offense: 4.5/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 5/5
Playoffs: Boulder is a tough team and should be making it into the playoffs. Consider the defending champs the frontrunner for the division, even though the rest of the Mountain isn't all that far behind the Beasts.


Calgary Cavalry

3037 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 6th

+ Offense has many assist-heavy players (Dupuis, Bergeron, Eriksson, Oshie, O'Reilly, Brown, Williams) with balanced contributions.

+ Pietrangelo and Suter are very stong pillars for Calgary's defense.

+ Starts aplenty with Hiller and Bryzgalov, as the two are the men in their towns.

– Absence of 30-goal scorers/primary goal scorers outside of Toews. No player on this roster scored 30 goals. Only one had less than 30 assists.
– Concerns about Gardiner, Ellis and White's productions compound, making the defense a little worrisome.
– Very streaky goaltending could put this team in a bind. 

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Calgary stands a good chance to make the playoffs, despite some of the outward concerns of the team. But they'll need to survive their division to make it happen, since the Mountain is a tight bunch.


Edmonton Kodiaks

2783 points; 2 rookies; 1 injured; Potential rank: 8th

 + H. Sedin, E. Staal, Vrbata and Cole lead a powerful offense that could get deadlier with Yakupov.

+ Edler, Kronwall, Klein and Wideman lead a quality defense.

+ Kiprusoff is a solid talent, and so is Theodore if he gets momentum.

– James van Riemsdyk and N. Backstrom need bounceback years after injuries decimated them both.

– How long will Theodore be the man in Florida?

– Souray's value and Schultz's place in Edmonton are worrisome. 

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: Edmonton will likely be neck and neck with the rest of the division, but depending on how the muddled mess of forwards turn out, this team could distance itself from the rest. Just like the rest of the division, the Kodiaks stand a good shot to make it if the division doesn't eat them alive first.


Salt Lake City Scorpions

2735 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 10th

+Two 30-goal scorers (Perry and M. Michalek) lead a strong offense rounded by assist machines. (Landeskog, Fleischmann, St. Louis)

+A healthy Lehtonen and an opportunity-seizing Lindback could be a scrappy duo.

+Powerful, but balanced defense (Boyle, Letang, Hamonic, Wisniewski, Nikitin) that contributes with points and blocked shots.

– Injury concerns run rampant about Mueller, less so about Kesler and M. Michalek.

– If Lindback falters or Lehtonen gets hurt, this duo can fall off pretty quickly.

– All solid defenders, but a bit lacking in a backup plan (Spurgeon) if multiple are hurt.

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Salt Lake City seems to be ahead of Calgary and Edmonton, but behind Boulder in a ranking that has no team more than a point behind anyone else. Salt Lake City should make the postseason, unless their divisional play is poor.

PACIFIC DIVISION

California Wave

3421 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 2nd

+ Tons of scoring potential (Stamkos, Kovalchuk, Marleau, Callahan, Elias, Krejci, Steen) make this team tough to outpace.

+ Huge shotblocking focus and nice point production from Seabrook, Gorges, Carlson, Pitkanen and Z.  Michalek. There’s loads of potential here.

+ Niemi and Elliott/Halak is just ridiculous. Easy to change with the Blues 'tenders.

– Offense is tough to nitpick. The biggest concerns here are if there’s a net regression among the forward corps. Elias might dip with age.

– Some small concerns about injuries to Pitkanen and Michalek.

– Figuring out which to lose of Niemi/Halak/Elliott if all are healthy is very tough.

Overall Ranks: 4.5/5
Offense: 4.5/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4.5/5
Playoffs: A virtual lock for the division and contender for the top spot in the West, California's stacked roster will be one that has the opportunity to ride very deep.


Portland Pioneers

2970 points; Potential rank: 7th

+ A good offense with decent contributors (Iginla, Franzen, Marchand, Burrows, Kunitz, Whitney)

+ Filip Kuba is solid, and so is Timonen if healthy. Zidlicky could improve with a full season in NJ.

+ Bobrovsky will be the man in Columbus without question.

– Injury risks to Hossa and Roy are very large concerns.

– Not only is Timonen still recovering, this team doesn't field the base 4 guys.

– How much will Hedberg be called upon for his services if Brodeur playing well? What if Bobrovsky fails?

Overall Ranks: 2.83/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 2/5
Goalies: 3/5
Playoffs: Portland has a lot of work to become a postseason squad, but there are some pieces there. They’re just not the answers to the right puzzle. But, the playoffs are even further away if the fourth D isn’t found quick!


Seattle Aviators

2594 points; 1 rookie; Potential rank: 15th

+ Great foundation at forward (Kopitar, Eberle, Wheeler), with an impressive 2nd tier (Ribeiro, Purcell, Henrique).

+ Awesome defense (Enstrom, Keith, Liles) with very balanced contributions.

+ Goaltending, if Schneider becomes the man, is less worrisome.

– Concerns about Hall's recovery and Gagner's streaky season take some of the luster way from the offense.

– Larsson and Green need to improve from last season to round out Seattle's defense. What role will Hamilton play for the Bruins?

– Only one goalie and Schneider might not even be the man in town. Risky tactic as long as Luongo is a Canuck and even beyond that.

Overall Ranks: 3.5/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 2.5/5
Playoffs: Seattle will need to rely on strong seasons from everyone to have a chance. Otherwise, the Aviators will likely hover near the bottom of the division.


Vancouver Lumberjacks

2407 points; Potential rank: 16th

+ Strong top four (Pavelski, Getzlaf, Ryan, Couture) and good middlemen (Hodgson, Zajac).

+ Tons of potential with Ehrhoff, Shattenkirk and Yandle.

+ Rask and Dubnyk should be interesting--two goalies on the rise for their teams.

– Will Dubnyk have the team in front to support? Will Rask be able to last for an entire season?

– No clear number 4 defenseman (Voynov or Sbisa) and a lack of blocked shots/PPN.

– Injury risks in Duchene, Zajac and McDonald. The three missed 148 games last year.

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: Vancouver can't do worse than last year, even if their potentials don't say the same story. They probably won't make the playoffs, but are arguably California's toughest competition in the Pacific. A bubble berth is possible, but a rather large stretch.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

  1. California
  2. Alaska
  3. Boulder
  4. New Orleans
  5. Salt Lake City
  6. Saskatoon
  7. Edmonton
  8. Winnipeg
  9. Northwest
  10. Calgary
  11. Vancouver
  12. Houston 
  13. Regina
  14. Dallas
  15. Seattle
  16. Portland 
Wednesday
Oct102012

IceHL WEST Predictions, Part I

With both leagues finally drafted and now in the midst of making moves, what better way to spend the time during the lockout than by analyzing teams as if there were a real season coming up? You’ll find division-by-division breakdowns of all 16 teams in the IceHL WEST, with brief analyses of offensive, defensive and goaltending capabilities followed by my ratings.

Note: Potential rank is calculated using last season’s stats with this season's rosters. These, among other stats will be discussed in a future metrics post.

ARCTIC DIVISION

Alaska Huskies

3323 points; Potential rank: 3rd

+ A trio of 30-goal scorers (Ovechkin, Spezza, Pacioretty) highlight a potent offense. Vanek, Filppula, Stastny are solid assist machines. Malone and Read are more balanced.

+ McDonagh, Garrison, McBain, Girardi and E. Johnson are a solid group that can offer a blend of shotblocking and scoring.

+ If Smith picks up where he left off, he'll be an elite talent, and Crawford is also a solid backup.

– While this team boasts a solid offense, will Read regress? Will Ovechkin improve?

– The defense is a bit NYR-heavy and Erik Johnson is a question mark.

– Is Crawford really the man in Chicago for the long haul?

Overall Rating: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: With a team built to last and a GM who tends to make moves with uncanny timing, there's no reason to believe that Alaska wouldn't take the division again this season, though the competition should be much tougher.


Northwest Narwhals

3113 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 4th

+ Great top five to lead the team (Neal, Kessel, J. Staal, Fisher, Lecavalier) with high point productions. Second tier (B. Sutter, Little, Okposo/Setoguchi) also has some utility.

+ Tough starting group (Phaneuf, Hedman, Streit, Bieksa) with lots of offensive/defensive point balance.

+ Fleury will be the man in Pittsburgh again. A healthy Backstrom in net will also pay dividends.

– Setoguchi is a real issue here. Underperforming previous season and injured. Large risk.

– How well will L. Schenn slot in if the starters here are injured?

– Is Backstrom ready to make a triumphant return?

Overall Rating: 4/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Narwhals have the shot to make it into the playoffs, but their fate is going to be tied to how close the battle is within the division. On paper, this team is a bubble team at worst and a bottom 4 seed at best.


Regina Renegades

2648 points; Potential rank: 11th

+ Brad Richards is the man for Regina, and Tanguay, Nugent-Hopkins and Pominville make a nice top 4.

+ Byfuglien and Campbell lead an offensively-minded group. Visnovsky, Myers and Gilbert wrap it up.

+ Miller and Luongo are capable goaltenders that run more hot than cold. Miller's the man in Buffalo.

– Outside of the top 4 forwards, nobody in that department averages better than 2.5 points per night, so there are depth concerns.

– What if new destinations for Visnovsky and Gilbert don't pan out? There could be trouble.

– Luongo's value is closely tied to his fate. He needs to be the man somewhere. He is in limbo at present.

Overall Rating: 3.67/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: With the stiff competition the Renegades are about the face this season, Regina might have a tough time seeing the postseason. Questions about their roster also make it tougher to endorse a run.


Saskatoon Sharpshooters

3436 points; Potential rank: 1st

+ A do-it-all group that includes strong scoring with Sharp and D. Sedin and balance from the rest of the roster (Simmonds, Backes, Laich, Glencross, Lupul, Ryder).

+ Heavy focus on shotblocking with Carle, Smid, Beauchemin, Vlasic and MacDonald.

+ Howard and Brodeur have potential if the two stay healthy. Both have the talent.

– Brodeur could have the wheels fall off at any moment. Howard might return to form, but will his team?

– Little offense from the defense outside of Carle.

– How Lupul and Laich get used in systems could change their values.

Overall Rating: 4/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Sharpshooters will need a by-the-system contribution from everyone for this team to survive: that is, the players do exactly as what their scoresheets say they can do. Saskatoon could challenge for a division title, but will likely settle as a lower four playoff seed.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Dallas Outlaws

2630 points; Potential rank: 14th

+ Young team with power (Seguin, Parise, Nash) and some lower-end guys. (Perron, Couturier, Hagelin)

+ Balanced defense with lots of quality players. (Weber, Bogosian, Del Zotto, Hamhuis and Goligoski)

+ Varlamov should be the guy in Colorado. Same with Holtby in Washington.

– Can Holtby earn that time under a new system? Will Varly have a team that can support him?

– A very top heavy roster that has a large gap between the top-end offense and the rest of the forwards. If just one of those top guys has an injury (like Nash), this spells a lot of trouble.

– Will offensive points, which this team has in spades, carry the defense?

Overall Rating: 3.5/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 3/5
Playoffs: Dallas has some work to do to get into the postseason. A stiff division won't make anything easier either.


Houston Hellcats

2678 points; Potential rank: 11th

+ Datsyuk and Hartnell are two solid topflight options that are very complimentary.

+ Chara is quality, and Seidenberg could be good. Faulk and Burns also have potential. Staal if healthy was a steal.

+ Anderson and Ward make for an awesome duo, both getting at least 30 wins and 3 SOs.

– Concerns about the return of Horton, injuries of Koivu and Samuelsson and age of Jagr and Doan.

– Boston D overinvestment and injury risks to Burns and Staal are concerns.

– Should the Senators/Hurricanes start sinking, the goalies will suffer fast.

Overall Rating: 3.16/5
Offense: 3/5
Defense: 3/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: While Houston will likely have some trouble this season with the competition, the Hellcats could make some noise up until the very end of the season but only if everyone fires on all cylinders. A bubble team at best.


New Orleans Gators

3043 points; 1 injured; Potential rank: 5th

+ Strong forward crew (Giroux, Thornton, Zetterberg, Gaborik, Selanne, Stafford) should pump out the points on a nightly basis.

+ Solid, if unspectacular defense (Subban, Johnson, Whitney, Gonchar and Kaberle) that can put up where it needs to.

+ Equal parts proven talent and risk with Lundqvist and Reimer in net.

– Returns of Gaborik and Jokinen from injury might make a difference.

– No real huge standout on the defense here.

– Is Reimer the guy? Can he return to form after last season's injury debacle?

Overall Rating: 3.83/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Gators are a strong team that can call on many different parts of their roster to produce.  If it's even possible, the Gators might sneak up on unsuspecting teams and crush them. Potential division-winners, if not a dark horse to run the distance.


Winnipeg Winterhawks

2638 points. Potential rank: 13th

+ Solid top six (Crosby, Tavares, Lucic, Hornqvist, Ladd, Plekanec) with good potential if the leader remains healthy.

+ Defense follows a similar build as offense. Killer leader (Karlsson), lots of solid talent surrounding it (Doughty, Ekman-Larsson, Leopold) and one big question. (Markov)

+ Two solid goaltenders (Price and Pavelec) with the ability to have awesome years.

– Concerns about Havlat, Heatley and Crosby hinder the offensive potential.

– Markov has played 20 games in the last two seasons. Will he play 20 games this year?

– See the Houston goaltending issue: if the Canadiens/Jets begin to falter, watch out.

Overall Rating: 3.83/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: Might need to win the division to make it into the playoffs, but Winnipeg is on near-even footing with New Orleans. The Winterhawks have a shot to make it in, but it's not going to fall into their laps as easily as it could for the Gators.

Wednesday
Aug292012

The Sharpshooter Press: Playing For Keeps

Hello everyone! My name is Tony Pomposelli and I'm the newly selected GM for the Saskatoon Sharpshooters. Before I get started, I'd like to thank Chris for giving me the opportunity to join the IceHL and this is something I could not be more excited about! I plan to be blogging here frequently about the Sharpshooters and other IceHL-related topics.

As a new GM, I face many new challenges as I have to prepare for very high-caliber competition, get used to the settings of the league and actually deal with something I have never dealt with before—a keeper league.

This being said, figuring out the right keepers while keeping within a pre-designated set of standards can be a challenge for teams, especially if you have some solid players.

For my selections, I took into consideration several things:

  • What players have the potential to put out the most points?
  • Who ranks among the top talent in the NHL?
  • Of the players who have lower potential, if we want them back, are we going to have a reasonable shot of getting them back if we let them go?
  • What positions have the most/least depth? That is, what areas can we expect to have an easier time to fall back on if we miss out on someone good during a draft run?
  • What areas in previous drafts have I paid the least attention to or gotten cannibalized on the most?

That being said, I took a look at last year's roster and had to make some tough choices, and I'm hoping this works out for the best.

Forwards

The franchise will retain Daniel Sedin and Patrick Sharp as its returning forwards for the upcoming season. The two led forwards in scoring on Saskatoon last year, are among the top talent in the NHL, and can be top-flight assets for forwards. Now, looking at players, I realized this league puts more of a premium on scoring than secondary stats, forcing me to switch things up. In previous leagues, +/-, SOG and PIMs actually made a difference, so having to focus on less stats is new for me, and a bit odd, seeing as I used to do well based on those statistics.

Two other considerations:

  • Tomas Fleischmann—Fleischmann's awesome 196 points from last year makes him a player worthy of consideration to keep, but there's lingering concern that his season in Florida was a flash in the pan. Is a repeat going to happen next season?
  • Brad Marchand—Marchand had a nice 173-point year, and Boston is always good during the regular season, but there's usually a good amount of centers available. Plus, for a league that doesn't put premiums on specific positions (C/LW/RW), this could be helpful.

Defense

Saskatoon makes a very difficult decision in bringing back Dan Boyle for the 2012-13 campaign. This decision was not tough based on that I didn't want him, but that he had two very good teammates that warranted serious consideration. But in the end, the decision was made based on his ability to produce points across the board rather than specializing in one area significantly.

Two other considerations:

  • Francois Beauchemin—Beauchemin's 251-point season led the Sharpshooters overall, and the vast majority of his points came in blocked shots. Take away the blocked shots, and Beauchemin's point total drops to a painful 57.
  • Matt Carle—Carle acts as middleman to Boyle and Beauchemin. Not as good of a scorer as Boyle, but blocks less than Beauchemin. The big question is will his stats remain similar in Tampa Bay?

Goaltending

Jimmy Howard will be our returning stud for the upcoming season. Every team needs at least one guaranteed goalie that they can hang their hat on. Howard is far and away that goalie considering his previous competition on Saskatoon of Ben Bishop. Improving on Howard will be much tougher than it would be to improve upon our backup situation. Consider this as well: 16 teams may have a maximum of two goalies each, for a total of 32 goalies. That means 2 backup goaltenders will be drafted. With that low of a number, it's likely we can work on getting a second starter, especially if you consider how many teams use a 1A/1B system as well.

Around the League

Looking at the other teams, keeping rules in mind, here is who I would give the nod to on my league's opposition—if I were coming in to become the GM of that team instead of the Sharpshooters.

Seattle Aviators 
Anze Kopitar, Marian Hossa, Patrice Bergeron and Pekka Rinne

Alaska Huskies
Alex Ovechkin, Bobby Ryan, Jason Spezza and Ryan McDonaugh

California Wave 
Steve Stamkos, Ryan Callahan, Ilya Kovalchuk and Antti Niemi (GM Jon Wold announced his picks as these four)

Portland Pioneers 
Phil Kessel, Jarome Iginla, Patrick Kane and Miikka Kiprusoff

Vancouver Lumberjacks
Martin St. Louis, James Neal, Alex Pietrangelo and Jonas Hiller

Calgary Cavalry 
Michael Ryder, Mike Fisher, Ryan Suter and Ilya Bryzgalov

Edmonton Kodiaks 
Patrik Elias, Brian Campbell, Alexander Edler and Henrik Sedin

Regina Renegades
Brad Richards, David Backes, Dennis Wideman and Marc-Andre Fleury

Winnipeg Winterhawks 
Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson, Jason Garrison and Carey Price

Boulder Beasts Evgeni Malkin, Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn and Jonathan Quick

Dallas Outlaws
Zach Parise, Shea Weber, Rick Nash and Corey Crawford

Houston Hellcats Pavel Datsyuk, Martin Erat, Zdeno Chara and Cam Ward (GM James Leggett announced his picks, and three of these players were selected; instead of Erat, he took Derek Stepan)

New Orleans Gators 
Claude Giroux, Erik Cole, Niklas Kronwall and Henrik Lundqvist

Salt Lake City Scorpions 
Corey Perry, Marian Gaborik, Milan Michalek and Martin Brodeur

Who would you keep if you were a GM? Agree or disagree with my picks? Take a look at all the IceHL WEST rosters at and let's chat about it!

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