Stat Junkie 2: AHL Final Edition

Before we begin on this edition of Stat Junkie, I would like to thank everyone who read the last edition of SJ. Seeing the amount of praise that the post got on Twitter was awesome, so once again, thank you, and I hope you enjoy this next edition of Stat Junkie.

As we've wrapped up the regular season, I found it more fitting to go back and look at the statistics that each team accrued through both parts of the season. While stats are always changing during the regular season, once you're looking at final results, you really get a better picture of whom over- or under-performed.

So, with this post, we're looking back at the first part of the season, when the IceHL relied on the services of the AHL during the NHL lockout. This part of the season lasted for 12 weeks and utilized some different stats than were tracked in the NHL portion of the season.

To reflect this, each category on the spreadsheet was modified to include the different stats. Below is a changelog when compared to the first Stat Junkie post.

-Offense saw the addition of PIMs to its pool of stats (goals and assists). Offense is more of a reflection of what the combined roster of skaters did rather than differentiate between offense and defense.
-Goaltending did not change, as we tracked the same two statistics--goalie wins and shutouts.
-Opportunist and Defense were removed from this post, due to those stats (game-winning/power play goals, and points allowed/blocked shots) not being tracked during this portion of the season.
-The addition of the points column (in GOLD) allow you to see the total points a team put up in the season as well as their projected average across the 12 weeks of play. This will be added in on the 3rd Stat Junkies post (more details on that later).
-Also, the TOTAL column (in PURPLE) will read differently, so we'll explain how that one works.

Also, here's an explanation of how points are accrued on this scale:
 
-Teams were ranked on a 1-16 scale for a selected stat.
-Points were assigned to these values, 16 points for 1st place, 15 for 2nd place, and so on until 1 point was awarded for 16th place.
-Ties were settled by taking the point total of the positions taken up by the tie and averaging them among the teams involved. (EXAMPLE-A three-way tie for 6th place would involve 3 teams, the next available position being 9th. Thus, we take points from 6th, 7th and 8th place (11, 10 and 9), add them up (30) and split them among the teams, so each team would get 10 points.)
-The maximum points a team could receive in each stat pool is 48 on offense and 32 on goaltending.
-The Overall end ranking is a cumulative score of the 2 groups, so the maximum number of points a team could have there is 80.
-Ties in the Overall end ranking were settled by who had higher ranks in any category, so if a team had two 1st place rankings, but the other has only one, the team with two wins the tie.

So, with that being said, let's dive in and see who reigned supreme in the AHL.


Offense: In the spreadsheet above, this category appears in RED.

While there seemed to be a consistent deviation from the top 8 in a category vs. the top 8 overall, there were some differences that were particularly striking, such as when a team was very far removed from the expectation--that is, when a team is placed 7th in the overall standings, you'd expect them to be around that in the given stats.

 -In goals scored in the West, just 2 of the top 8 teams in that stat were not in the top 8 of the league standings. Dallas and California were not within the top 8 of goals scored, while Alaska and New Orleans were. Dallas was on the outside of the top 8 in a tie for 9th, while California ranked in the bottom 4.
-With the East, 2 of the top 8 goal-scoring teams were not a part of the top 8 in the standings. Despite finishing the AHL season in 14th place, Milwaukee's offense ranked within the top 5. Montreal, the 9th place team, ranked 8th in goal scoring. Boston and Quebec, top-8 teams in the standings, ranked 10th and 15th respectively in goal-scoring.
-Assist-wise, 2 of the top 8 assist-getters weren't top 8 overall squads. Saskatoon and Vancouver displaced California and Boulder from the top 8 in this category, with the two Canadian teams finishing in the top 5. Saskatoon's 3rd place finish in assists was impressive considering its 13th place overall finish. California and Boulder finished 9th and 10th in assists, respectively.
-In the East, 3 of the top 8 overall teams didn't appear in the top 8 of assists. While Tampa Bay, New York and Quebec missed out (placing in a tie for 9th, 12th and 13th respectively), Milwaukee (7th-tied), Atlanta (7th-tied) and Hamilton (3rd) crashed the party.
-PIMs were all over the place, with 3 of the top 8 overall teams failing to be a top 8 PIM-gatherer. Winnipeg, Dallas and Edmonton (10th-tied, 13th and 15th, respectively) were outside of the picture, while Houston (4th), Calgary (1st) and Alaska (5th) managed to be a part of the top 8 in PIMs. Calgary's placement was most surprising, given its 15th-place overall finish.
-Out East, 3 of the top 8 PIM-gatherers weren't a part of the top 8 overall. St. Louis (9th), Tampa Bay (10th) and Chicago (15th) were displaced by Montreal (3rd), Hartford (6th) and Washington (7th).
-The best offense out West was a tie that involved the Winnipeg Winterhawks and Seattle Aviators, who earned 37 out of a possible 48 points. They were only one of two teams to break the 50-goal mark, the other being the St. Louis Archers. Meanwhile, the Aviators were one of 5 teams to break the 200-PIM mark.
-In the East, the North Carolina Nighthawks had the top offense, earning 43 of a possible 48 points. Their consistency was key in securing the top spot, as the Nighthawks finished in the top 5 in all three stats. The St. Louis Archers, the other team who scored more than 50 goals on the season, finished 2nd in the East.

 
IceAHL Offense WEST:
Gold: TIE-Winnipeg Winterhawks and Seattle Aviators, with 37 points
Silver: Portland Pioneers, with 33 points
Bronze: Edmonton Kodiaks, with 32.5 points

IceAHL Offense EAST:
Gold: North Carolina Nighthawks, with 43 points
Silver: St. Louis Archers, with 39 points
Bronze: Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 34.5 points
 

Goaltending: In the spreadsheet above, this category appears in BLUE.

As was the case with the first Stat Junkie, there's a ton of tiering in goaltending. It's the nature of the position, and due to the limited bend a stat has, it's more of an expectation of goaltending to be more tiered. Stats are more dynamic in offense because you can have those nights where you get a range of values. Goaltending--you either got the win or you didn't, or you got the shutout or you didn't. Only four real possible outcomes in goaltending, far more in offense.

 -In the West, the teams with the most goaltending wins were the Alaska and Houston, both sporting 15 wins apiece. They were two of four teams who averaged more than one win per week, the others being Boulder and Northwest, each with 13 wins.
-Meanwhile, the East goaltending wins leaders were Tampa Bay and Chicago, both earning 15 wins. Interestingly enough, the four teams in the IceHL that had 15 wins owned the same two goalies: David Leggio for Houston and Chicago and Dustin Tokarski for Alaska and Tampa Bay.
-In shutouts, the West was carried by Dallas and Calgary, who both had 4 shutouts to their credit.
-In the East, shutouts were most frequent for New York; they were the only team with 5 shutouts.
-Overall, the West's top goaltending belonged to the Dallas Outlaws, earning 27.5 points out of 32. They edged out the Alaska Huskies by half a point.
-In the East, the best overall goaltending belonged to the New York Guardians, with 30 points out of a possible 32. They beat the second-place Tampa Bay Barracudas by 3.5 points, more than double the gap between 1st and 3rd in the West.

IceAHL Goaltending WEST:
Gold: Dallas Outlaws, with 27.5 points
Silver: Alaska Huskies, with 27 points
Bronze: Calgary Cavalry, with 25.5 points

IceAHL Goaltending EAST:
Gold: New York Guardians, with 30 points
Silver Tampa Bay Barracudas, with 26.5 points
Bronze: Milwaukee Lagers, with 24 points


Points Breakdown: In the spreadsheet above, this category appears in GOLD.

This stat has no bearing on the overall awards given in the post, but is rather a way to see how many points a team posted in the season and their average output on a weekly basis.

-2 teams in the West (Seattle and Winnipeg) and 3 teams in the East (New York, North Carolina and St. Louis) posted weekly averages of more than 50 points per game.

 
Overall: In the spreadsheet above, this category appears in PURPLE.

What you see on this spreadsheet is the cumulative totals of all the stats, which determines the best teams. The R Rank column shows the placement the team came in during the season. The Differential column shows the difference from their finish on paper. A positive differential means the team had a placement on paper better than in the league, while a negative differential says the opposite--they did worse on paper than they did in the real season.

 -Taking top honors as the best overall team in the West, the Dallas Outlaws won with 52 points out of a possible 80. While their offense was fairly average, their stellar goaltending made up the difference.
-Meanwhile, the best team out East was the New York Guardians, with 61.5 points out of 80. Winning the goaltending category certainly didn't hurt, but neither did their 4th place finish in offense. Those strong showings combined to show that Guardians were not a team to be trifled with in the East.
-In 2nd place in the West, the Alaska Huskies and Regina Renegades both finished with identical 50.5 point finishes. But due to Alaska having a higher ranking in any category (with a 1st-place tie in goaltending wins), the Huskies take the number two spot out West.
-In the East, 2nd place belonged to the Tampa Bay Barracudas, with 54.5 points. Tampa Bay's consistency gave it enough points to grab a spot on the overall podium, and its consistency made them a force to be reckoned with.
-Taking 3rd in the West was the Regina Renegades, with 50.5 points. Regina lost a tie with Alaska, but had strong showings in their offense, giving them a 4-point edge over their nearest competition.
-Out East, 3rd place belonged to the North Carolina Nighthawks, with 50.5 points. While their offense was superior, their goaltending left a lot to be desired, as only one team came behind them in that statistic.

IceAHL Overall WEST:
Gold: Dallas Outlaws, with 52 points
Silver: Alaska Huskies, with 50.5 points
Bronze: Regina Renegades, with 50.5 points

IceAHL Overall EAST:
Gold: New York Guardians, with 61.5 points
Silver: Tampa Bay Barracudas, with 54.5 points
Bronze: North Carolina Nighthawks, with 50.5 points

Stat Junkie: Who's On Top?

I love numbers.

As a sports fan, this is a very good thing that can be used to great advantage in a fantasy sports perspective. While most people love watching the game and getting into the game (don't get me wrong, I love that too), I'm always wondering what kinds of effects certain statistics have on a team's perception, and more importantly, how accurately do the numbers tell the whole story of a team?

It's why I love sports — the numbers are just a part of any given story.

So, I decided to grind out some calculations to determine what teams were considered the best in the IceHL's NHL portion of the season, not only to measure the teams against each other, but to answer one question: do the numbers support what is happening in the league?

While the AHL season was just as important, for the purposes of this exercise, we're sticking to one side of the league since points tracked are different for both. (But, if enough people are interested, we might do something like this for the AHL.)

So, here's an explanation of how the stats were calculated. These were calculated using the statistics at the conclusion of Week 19 of the IceHL season.

-A statistic was selected and each team was ranked on a 1-16 scale.
-Points were assigned to these values, 16 points for 1st place, 15 for 2nd place, and so on until 1 point was awarded for 16th place.
-Any ties within a ranking were settled by taking the average point total of the positions taken up by the tie and dividing them evenly among the teams involved. (EXAMPLE-A three-way tie for 6th place would involve 3 teams, the next available position being 9th. Thus, we take points from 6th, 7th and 8th place (11, 10 and 9), add them up (30) and split them among the teams, so each team would get 10 points.)
-Each stat was half of one group. The overall total points of stats are the combined scores in both stats, making the max number of points a team could earn in a given group 32.
-The Overall end ranking is a cumulative score of the 4 groups, so the maximum number of points a team could have there is 128.
-Ties in the Overall end ranking were settled by who had higher ranks in any category, so if a team had two 1st place rankings, but the other has only one, the team with two wins the tie.

Our groups were as follows:
Offense: Calculated with Goals and Assists
Defense: Calculated with Points Allowed and Blocked Shots
Goaltending: Calculated with Wins and Shutouts
Special Teams/Opportunists: Calculated with Power Play Goals and Game-Winning Goals
Overall: Calculated with results from the above 4 categories


OFFENSE: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in RED.

Perhaps the most interesting stat of the bunch to work on, offense told us some very interesting tales about the IceHL.

-Of the top 8 in the league (again, NHL standings ONLY), two teams did not have ranks that corresponded to the top 8 in goals out in the West. Saskatoon ranks 3rd in the NHL, but 13th in goals. That disparity is among the biggest in terms of difference between goals scored and rank out West. Calgary ranks 4th in the NHL, but only 11th in goals. The two teams not in the picture? Boulder (11th in NHL, 5th in goals) and Portland. (10th in the NHL, 2nd in goals)
-In terms of the East, two teams in the top 8 didn't have goals to match--Boston and Tampa Bay, both of whom were interestingly tied for 11th. The two teams with top-8 goal scoring not in the top 8 are Hamilton (4th in goals, 9th in NHL) and Atlanta (8th in goals, 14th in NHL). Boston's 7-position difference between goals and NHL record is the highest disparity in the East.
-Assist-wise, teams that hovered near the bottom of the rankings tended to have higher assists, as 12th-ranked New Orleans had the most assists. 16th-place Seattle managed to come behind only New Orleans, Vancouver and Edmonton. Right behind Seattle? Salt Lake City. Only three of the top 8 teams had assists in correspondence with the top 8. Of the 5 that didn't (California, Alaska, Dallas, Northwest and Calgary), no team ranked higher than 10th in assists. Alaska's team had the lowest assists in the West.
-In the East, three teams within the top 8 didn't have top 8 assist stats. The top three teams of Washington, North Carolina and Minnesota were ranked 9th, 10th and 11th in assists. Inside the top 8 of assists but outside of the top 8 in the conference were Quebec, Hartford and Hamilton. Hamilton was tied for 7th with St. Louis.
-With the West, the winner was the Vancouver Lumberjacks, earning 28 of a possible 32 points. Vancouver came in 4th place in goals scored and 2nd place in assists.
-In the East, the undisputed best offense was Milwaukee, taking top honors in both goals and assists. The Lagers won both categories by 2 over the 2nd place teams.

IceHL West Offense:
Gold: Vancouver Lumberjacks, with 28 points
Silver: Winnipeg Winterhawks, with 26.5 points
Bronze: Portland Pioneers, with 25.5 points

IceHL East Offense:
Gold: Milwaukee Lagers, with 32 points
Silver: Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 28 points
Bronze: Hamilton Steelcats, with 22.5 points


DEFENSE: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in BLUE.

Defense proved to be another interesting race to track, with both conferences boasting two very different races.

-In the West, 6 of the top 8 teams based on NHL records were in the top 8 of points allowed, with Northwest and Vancouver being the exceptions. Seattle (16th) and Portland (10th) were the two teams in the top 8 of points allowed (4th and 6th-Tied, respectively) while being outside of the top 8 NHL teams.
-Eastern teams within the top 8 were split in half, as only 4 teams inside the top 8 were among the 8 best points allowed. The 4 teams that were outside of that? Baltimore, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Boston. Only Baltimore was ranked outside of the bottom 3 teams.
-7 of the top 8 teams in the West were ranked within the top 8 of blocked shots, with Winnipeg being the only exception, ranking in the bottom 3 of shots blocked. Edmonton (9th in the NHL) ranked 7th in blocked shots.
-Out East, 6 of the top 8 teams based on their NHL records were in the top 8 of blocked shots. Milwaukee and Boston were the two exceptions, placing 12th and 9th place, respectively. 13th-place Chicago placed 5th in terms of blocked shots, while 14th-place Atlanta ranked 7th.
-The top 4 teams in the West were separated by only two points, and there was a tie for first in the West with Calgary and Alaska, with 28 points. The gap between the top 4 teams in the West is smaller than the gap between 1st and 2nd in the East.
-The North Carolina Nighthawks unanimously won the rights to be called "Best Defense" after having both the lowest points allowed and most blocked shots. They scored 32 out of a possible 32 points.

IceHL West Defense:
Gold: TIE-Alaska Huskies and Calgary Cavalry, with 28 points
Silver: Saskatoon Sharpshooters, with 27 points
Bronze: California Wave, with 26 points

IceHL East Defense:
Gold: North Carolina Nighthawks, with 32 points
Silver: Washington Sentinels, with 27 points
Bronze: Chicago Hitmen, with 25 points


GOALTENDING: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in GREEN.

Of the stats tracked, goaltending was probably the most tiered in that there were tons of statistical ties in tracking wins and goaltending shutouts.

-In the West, the top team with goaltending wins was the 9th-ranked Edmonton Kodiaks, sporting 20 goaltending wins. No other team in the West or East has as many wins.
-East's top ranked goalie wins team was the Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 18. Baltimore's 18 would be good for 4th in the entire IceHL, as Edmonton (20), Winnipeg and New Orleans (19 each) have more.
-5 teams had three shutouts in the West: New Orleans, Saskatoon, Alaska, Boulder and Houston.
-Baltimore leads the East and the entire IceHL with 4 shutouts.
-The West's goaltending was won by New Orleans, with 28.5 points out of 32.
-Out East, the Baltimore Blue Crabs won the goaltending categories unanimously with 32 points out of 32.

IceHL West Goaltending:
Gold: New Orleans Gators, with 28.5 points
Silver: Alaska Huskies, with 25.5 points
Bronze: Winnipeg Winterhawks, with 23.5 points

IceHL East Goaltending:
Gold: Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 32 points
Silver: Milwaukee Lagers, with 25 points
Bronze: Washington Sentinels, with 24.5


OPPORTUNISTS: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in ORANGE.

With opportunists, I decided to track power play goals and game winning goals for this, making it a partial blend of skill-based stats and special teams. Lots of ties out here, too, but there was less tiering than in goaltending.

-Out West, 3 of the top 8 teams record-wise did not make an appearance in the top 8 of power play goals scored. Calgary, Alaska and Vancouver didn't make the cut with their power play goals, while New Orleans, Portland and Boulder did.
-3 of the top 8 teams out East failed to make the top 8 power play goals as well, those teams being North Carolina, Tampa Bay and Boston. Making the cut instead were Hamilton, Montreal and Detroit.
-With game-winning goals, half of the top 8 teams by NHL record were not in the top 8 of game-winners. Saskatoon, Alaska, Northwest and Dallas were not in the pack. Interestingly, all but Dallas are in the same division. These four were beaten out by New Orleans, Edmonton, Portland and Boulder.
-Meanwhile in the East, 3 teams in the top 8, including the top of Washington and North Carolina, were not among the top 8 in game-winning goals. (Tampa Bay being the 3rd) Shockingly, the three teams that replaced them were the 3 best teams in this statistic: Hamilton (1st with 17) and the duo of Atlanta and Quebec. (2nd-Tied with 15 each)
-Winning the opportunist award out West, the Winnipeg Winterhawks clinched it with a perfect 32 out of 32, leading in both categories. Their victory was by 3.5 points, a margin larger than the gap separating the top 4 teams out East. (just 2 points)
-In the East, the Milwaukee Lagers won the award with 27 out of 32 points. Minnesota and St. Louis tied with 25.5 points, and the North Carolina Nighthawks were just half a point behind.

IceHL West Opportunists:
Gold: Winnipeg Winterhawks, with 32 points
Silver: Portland Pioneers, with 28.5 points
Bronze: California Wave, with 27 points

IceHL East Opportunists:
Gold: Milwaukee Lagers, with 27 points
Silver: TIE-Minnesota Mammoths and St. Louis Archers, with 25.5 points
Bronze: North Carolina Nighthawks, with 25 points


OVERALL: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in PURPLE.

-In summation, the Winnipeg Winterhawks won as the best team out West, earning 100 points out of a possible 128. While their defense could be considered their weak point, the fact that Winnipeg appeared on the podium in the other 3 stat groups more than made up for their defensive deficiencies.
-Out east, the Baltimore Blue Crabs won top honors with 105.5 points. While only making the podium twice, the Blue Crabs were in the race in nearly every statistic, making this team dangerous.
-Perhaps the single most fascinating team to study was the team that takes 2nd best team out West: the New Orleans Gators, earning 91 points. A large gap in defense was their lowest category, but in every other one, the Gators were exceeding expectations. This is a team that on paper, is way outperforming its present 12th place standing.
-Getting silver out East was the Milwaukee Lagers, earning 91 points. Their two top finishes in Opportunist and in Offense, in addition to their 2nd place finish in Goaltending were enough to hide the team's largest deficiency: defense, where the team was tied for worst defense with Detroit, and with Regina out West for the worst defense in the IceHL.
-The California Wave takes the bronze medal for the West with 84 points. Unlike the teams ahead of the Wave in both conferences, California's biggest shortcomings came on Offense (where they were the middle of the pack) and goaltending (a bottom 5 squad). But their defense and opportunity-seizing team is enough to give them a spot on this podium.
-In 3rd for the East is the Washington Sentinels, earning 87.5 points. The Sentinels ranked somewhat low in Opportunist (bottom 5) but managed respectable finishes in all other stats, making the Sentinels a balanced and fierce threat.

IceHL West Overall:
Gold: Winnipeg Winterhawks, with 100 points
Silver: New Orleans Gators, with 91 points
Bronze: California Wave, with 84 points

IceHL East Overall:
Gold: Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 105.5 points
Silver: Milwaukee Lagers, with 91 points
Bronze: Washington Sentinels, with 87.5 points

The Sharpshooter Press: The Draft – Week 7

Hey there, it's Tony P. from the Sharpshooters. Enjoying the season so far?

I'd like to welcome you to the first season recap so far of the Sharpshooters.

I plan on doing these at juncture marks in the season, about every 6-8 weeks, to give you an inside perspective on the season so far.

This post covers everything that happened to the team from the Draft to Week 7.

Draft

With our draft, we focused on blending areas that would be looked at. So we drafted these players, based on their stats from last season.

Chris Bourque: 27 G, 66 A, 42 PIM
Matt Fraser: 37 G, 18 A, 45 PIM
Emerson Etem: 62 G, 46 A, 36 PIM

Radko Gudas: 7 G, 13 A, 195 PIM
Danny Syvret: 7 G, 35 A, 24 PIM

Danny Taylor: 43 GP, 22 W, 5 SO

The inital vision was relatively simple.

• Fraser and the untested Etem were counted on for goals. Fraser's stats looked nice. Etem, while a wild card, showed he had potential with Medicine Hat.
• Bourque and Syvret were our main assist machines. Bourque had the potential for goals, but 66 assists was massive. Same with the 35 that Syvret, a defenseman, scored.
• Gudas was the PIM man, seeing as he outgained the roster in PIM just by himself.
• Taylor just needed to win. He was what was left.

Week 1: Hellraising Huskies

Playing against the Alaska Huskies was the moment I'd been waiting for. It was the start of the season, and the preseason game looked good for us. There was optimism that things were going well.

And then the week happened. Notably, I didn't have a great opportunity to check stats until the end of the week, and I was still positive things worked out well. Until I found out our team was the only team who failed to break double digits. We were crushed by 50 points.

My strategy partially imploded. The assists worked, as Bourque and Syvret scored 3 assists combined. But that was it. Etem went MIA, Gudas was scratched all week, Fraser faltered in Texas and Taylor added nothing to the pot after losing a game in an SO.

Changes were made swiftly, with Etem and Gudas leaving in favor of Ondrej Palat and Sami Vatanen. Palat had been scoring quite well and Vatanen, like Etem, was a chance I wanted to take in a lesser role.

Week 2: Vancouver Vexation

Much different than Week 1, as we actually were in it up until the end of the week. The most-improved team in the IceHL that week was the Sharpshooters, but we still fell short to the Lumberjacks, 47-38.

Bourque's 10 points were great. So were Syvret's 9. Taylor had gotten a win for 6. Palat's 5 points were slightly disappointing, but he showed promise by putting points in assists and PIMs. Vatanen's 4 would usually not be heralded well, but it was a goal, so it was worth a smile. Fraser's only goal would be the only goal he would score for us, as Chris Conner was brought in. Syvret, while reliable, was dumped in favor of Marco Scandella, a risky trigger move.

Week 3: Dallas Destruction

Ouch. Week 1 returned in style, with the Sharpshooters getting eviscerated by the Outlaws, 42-19. Strong weeks from the Outlaws' Sean Couturier and Keith Aucoin did us in, with the duo racking up 31 points.

Where'd we go wrong this time?

Bourque? Nope, give him another 10 points this week. Vatanen? Nope, with 6 points, he improved from the previous week. Palat? Well, he dipped a little, but gave us the rest of the offense for the week. Chris Conner, our newest acquisition had a short week with only one game. Annoying, but not his fault. Scandella? SCRATCHED THE WEEK. Trigger move failed. Taylor? No wins again. Let's find someone else.

Scandella was dropped for Steve McCarthy. Putting in claims for a pair of netminders was a failure. We were stuck with Danny Taylor.

Week 4: Pioneer Punch-Out

Another week led to a close competition against the Pioneers that led us to feel good about the week. We were tied going into the final night.

And then Cam Atkinson happened. OUCH. On the strength of 17 points from 5 assists and 2 PIM, Saskatoon fell once again by 9 points, this time to the Pioneers.

Shortfalls? Let's see.

Bourque? Somewhat of a lame week, with only 4 points. Palat? A solid 11 this week. Conner? 9 points, getting great action. Vatanen? 2 PIM. Rough, but let's see if he bounces back. McCarthy? 2 PIM and scratches. Taylor? A shutout win gets us 10! Maybe it was a good thing we ended up keeping him.

We decided on one transaction. McCarthy left. Gudas returned after putting up nice numbers for nobody. Would he bring them back to us next week against the defending champions in Boulder?

Week 5: Boulder Beatdown

And finally, a week that was very good to us happened. Interestingly, I've always considered 5 my lucky number. But seeing as we were going against the defending champions, my hopes were muted.

Until the end of the week when the team emerged...victorious!?

Conner? SCRATCHED. Taylor? DIDN'T PLAY. Those two facts alone would have usually been enough to knock me down. But Bourque had a goal, two assists and 6 PIMs for 16! Gudas nearly mirrored that line, just adding a PIM. 17 points in Gudas' return. Palat also added a goal and an assist for 7 points. Vatanen also chipped two assists for 6 points. Those 4 players gave us 46 points. The Beasts had an entire roster contributing, with Yann Danis getting 12 points as their leading scorer. No other Beast broke double digits.

It was enough to lift us out of our slump and give newfound life to the Sharpshooters. Conner would also leave the team due to wildly inconsistent play.

Week 6: Cavalry Crusher

Calgary was next, and sadly, they sported an 0-5 record. We had been in the same winless boat as them up until Week 5. We always like to see each team win, so we weren't going to be heartbroken if we lost.

That said, Saskatoon did put up their most dominant performance to date, having solid performances from most everyone.

Palat's 2 assists and 4 PIM gave him 10 points. Taylor also earned 10 points for a shutout goaltending win. Vatanen was the star of the week for Saskatoon, getting a goal and 12 PIMs for 16 points. Bourque and new acquisition Jeff Taffe each scored two assists. Finally, Gudas rounded off the week with 4 PIMs.

Calgary's tough week was marred by inconsistency by Roman Horak and Jake Gardiner. Their week was harsh, as they could have basically gone against any team (except Portland) and lost the week.

Week 7: Narwhal Knockout

Another close matchup, this one had me gritting my teeth until the final day. Taylor fell flat for a 4th week, seemingly a theme for him: a great week, followed by a non-existent one. Talk about frustrating.

Competition up to the final day only had us leading by one point.

Then, the final day happened.

Unfortunately, the team just couldn't stay in it, and the Narwhals took down the Sharpshooters thanks to the powers of Carter Hutton. While I'm not a fan of pinning wins or losses on certain players, Danny Taylor is about to take the fall for Saskatoon's 5th loss in 7 weeks. Given he's had relevance in 3 weeks, but only one of them was a win, it's time for someone new.

Dropping to 2-5 is certainly far from what we predicted to start the year, but the battle is just beginning.

IceHL EAST Predictions, Part II

With both leagues finally drafted and now in the midst of making moves, what better way to spend the time during the lockout by analyzing teams as if there were a real season coming up? You’ll find division-by-division breakdowns of all 16 teams in the EAST, with brief analyses of offensive, defensive and goaltending capabilities followed by my ratings.

Note: Potential rank is calculated using last year’s stats as the base with this year’s rosters. These, among other stats will be discussed in a future metrics post.

NORTHEAST DIVISION

Boston Colonials

2803 points; Overall rank: 10th

+ Malkin and Giroux on the same team? HOLY CRAP.

+ Stellar defense usually led by offensive production (J. Johnson, Goligoski, Ehrhoff, Pitkanen).

+ Ward and Halak is a good duo. Ward is the guy right away, Halak might be later.

– Roy, Heatley, Pitkanen and Halak are injury risks early on that could make a big difference.

– A lack of blocked shots on the defense. Sufficient enough O to overcome that?

– Skeptical on Kunitz and Larsson. Will Kunitz produce and can Larsson build?

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: The Colonials’ strong offensive headliners are enough to make most teams take notice of this squad, but unfortunately, depth is the thing that could sink the ship of Boston. They might make the playoffs, but they’re going to need the rest of the team to step up or a bubble team could nab their spot.

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Hartford Mariners

3066 points; 1 injured, no replacement; Overall rank: 4th

+ Quality top six guys with B. Richards, Thornton, Getzlaf, Lucic, Vrbata and Skinner.

+ Bryz and Theodore should be able to hang. They're the guys for now.

+ What defense is present is very solid (Whitney, Weber, Enstrom).

– But this team carries 4 defensemen and one is on IR. This will leave points out every night until fixed.

– Hudler, Mueller and Timonen are now concerns for injury.

– Jose Theodore: how long does that last?

Overall Ranks: 3.5/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: The Mariners certainly don’t look like an expansion team and could definitely make a threat in their division, but their defense needs some fixing. Their goaltending could potentially sink them, but the biggest issue is the defense. This ranking is misleading, as if they were to fix their defense, they’d be closer to a 4. Given their divisional breakdown however, a playoff berth might not be out of the question.

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Montreal Olympiques

2854 points; 1 injured; Overall rank: 10th

+ Solid blend of strong forwards, including three 30-goal scorers (Perry, Kovalchuk and Clarkson) and two guys less than 5 goals short of that (Seguin and Selanne).

+ Alex Edler leads a balanced defense (Doughty, Myers, Kulikov, Voynov).

+ Hiller and Pavelec will garner enough starts to ensure someone is playing every night.

– That doesn't mean the goaltenders will get the wins, though.

– Defense, while balanced, lacks depth.

– Versteeg, Foligno and Hodgson present differing issues. Health, ability and reproduction of last season, respectively.

Overall Ranks: 3.83/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Montreal’s roster stands out as the most balanced in this relatively middle-of-the-road division. There’s no real standout team, but the offense is enough to potentially lift them over the rest of their foes. Their defense might give them some issues, but Montreal is (as of right now) best poised to take the division crown.

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Quebec Armada

2639 points; 1 rookie; 1 injured, no replacement; Overall rank: 16th

+ Great top six with lots of balance throughout (D. Sedin, J. Staal, Ribeiro, Cole, Brown, Krejci, Filppula).

+ Byfuglien and McDonaugh make for great pillars on the defense. Colaiacovo should be money too.

+ Nice goaltending tandem with Lundqvist and Holtby.

– While I'm a believer in Holtby, concerns exist about how long he'll be used.

– Riding the base 4 D is risky, especially when one of them is a rookie who is unproven (Hamilton).

– Hossa and Cole—will their injuries linger?

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Quebec’s roster has lots of offensive firepower, but has some questions about their team that don’t exactly leave me a believer. Hamilton as a core-4 defenseman is very questionable, and while he’s not a full-blown rookie (but close enough to it), what can Sven Baertschi do? There’s not enough focus on defensive stats and this isn’t a team that can shoot its way out of everything. Playoffs are tough, but they could be a surprise.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

Atlanta Arsenal

3088 points; Overall rank: 2nd

+ Twin 30-goal scorers (Michalek, Marleau) highlight an offense with potential  (Flesichmann, Fisher, Malone, Little, Briere, Carter).

+ Capable defense when healthy (Beauchemin, Streit, Phillips, Bouwmeester). Gill should get some looks.

+ Nice goaltending duo with Rinne and Elliott. Rinne should be the lynchpin of the team.

– Concerns on defense with Gill and Beauchemin recoveries.

– Can Michalek repeat a healthy season?

– Slight concerns about Nashville investment. If they fall, all positions get hurt.

Overall Ranks: 4/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4.5/5
Playoffs: With the team as drafted, Atlanta would stand a great chance to make the playoffs in almost any other division. That’s not to say they’re weak, just the rest of the division is that wild. Right now, the Arsenal is a bubble team that could pan out.

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North Carolina Nighthawks

3233 points; Overall rank: 1st

+ Strong offense that can put up points everywhere (E. Staal, Benn, Eberle, Vanek, Elias, Jagr).

+ Fun goaltending tandem: coming off a great season (Lehtonen) and guy who wants prove he's the guy (Dubnyk).

+ Potent shot-blocking defense (Gorges, Seabrook, Kuba, MacDonald, Seidenberg, Klein) poses few concerns.

– Dubnyk should be the guy in Edmonton. Does he have the abilities to be the man?

– Fielding only seven forwards. Two are Horton and Jagr. Early concerns if they don't work.

– No other major concerns. This team looks kinda scary.

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: A frighteningly built team, North Carolina certainly shows why they’re the defending champions. The team could sink if their offense doesn’t click, but this team has all the cards it should need to make it into the playoffs once again, if not go very deep.

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St. Louis Archers

2641 points; 2 rookies; 1 injured; Overall rank: 15th

+ Lots of high-average guys with points coming everywhere (Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Eriksson, Gaborik).

+ SOLID top 3 defense here with Pietrangelo, Kronwall and Nikitin.

+ Schneider/Smith is a nice tandem. Smith is the guy, helps alleviate concerns about Schneider.

– That said, Schneider is still a risky bet. Smith can only minimize that so much.

– The double rookie spin is always a risky tactic. Schultz and Tarasenko need to produce.

– Some real low producers on this team. (Boyes, Ekman-Larsson and Visnovsky)

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: It’s not that St. Louis is a bad team, it’s that they’re not as good as the rest of their division. Too many low-production players on this roster make it difficult to endorse a playoff run in this shape. Moves can be made, and should be made to run for the postseason.

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Tampa Bay Barracudas

2995 points; 1 injured; Overall rank: 8th

+ Great utility out of pretty much the entire forward squad (St. Louis, Lecavalier, Weiss, Richards, Purcell, Parenteau, Glencross).

+ Badass defense. Everyone is a killer on there (Boyle, Suter, Smid, Hedman, Clark).

+ Anderson and Quick (Hedberg while Quick's out) is a solid tandem.

– BIG CONCERNS about the heavy investment in the Lightning (5/13 skaters).

– Hedberg hopefully is out the door when Quick is done on IR.

– David Booth's low PPN is a bother. But not more than the overinvestment in the Lightning.

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: With a roster designed to get maximum efficiency out of every position, the Barracudas are quite well-positioned to make it into the playoffs, if not usurp the Nighthawks for the division crown. Expect the battle between those two to be very intense affairs. Tampa Bay looks like an early favorite for the division.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

1. North Carolina
2. Washington
3. Minnesota
4. Montreal
5. Tampa Bay
6. Detroit
7. New York
8. Atlanta
9. Milwaukee
10. Boston
11. Hartford
12. Baltimore
13. Chicago
14. St. Louis
15. Quebec
16. Hamilton

IceHL EAST Predictions, Part I

With both leagues finally drafted and now in the midst of making moves, what better way to spend the time during the lockout by analyzing teams as if there were a real season coming up? You’ll find division-by-division breakdowns of all 16 teams in the EAST, with brief analyses of offensive, defensive and goaltending capabilities followed by my ratings.

Note: Potential rank is calculated using last year’s stats as the base with this year’s rosters. (2012-2013 rosters with stats as from 2011-2012) These, among other stats will be discussed in a future metrics post.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Baltimore Blue Crabs

2865 points; Overall rank: 9th

+ Parise and Tavares lead a potent, but assist-heavy forward corps (Crosby, Hall, Read, Stastny, Tanguay).

+ Very offense-minded group on the defense. (Yandle, Wideman, Burns, E. Johnson, I. White)

+ Rask is definitely the man. Varlamov could make some noise if the team provides for him.

– The offense flies/dies on injury risk. Crosby and Hall, specifically.

– Would I want to invest in Varly? Not really. Colorado still can't support him.

– Defense has a concerning lack of blocked shots. They can make a large difference.

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: Baltimore’s roster is an interesting bunch of theoreticals plugged into one roster. Will Crosby play at the level we know him to? Can Varlamov win without a team in front? Will Hall be a stud again? Will Read slump as a sophomore? You get the picture. Bubble team at best.

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Hamilton Steelcats

2703 points; Overall rank: 14th

+ A largely capable offense here, with great PPN out of most of the top 6. (H. Sedin, Franzen, Iginla, Oshie, Marchand)

+ Good offensive defense, with lots of points coming from the blueline. Bolstered by Campbell, Chara and Gonchar.

+ Luongo has potential if he lands somewhere else. That's a big IF though.

– The one goalie fly is too risky for my liking, especially when Luongo is that one guy.

– Havlat, van Riemsdyk and Perron are injury risks.

– Zidlicky and Martin are questionable, the former much moreso.

Overall Ranks: 3.33/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 2.5/5
Playoffs: There are a lot of ways Hamilton’s team can blow up, several of them involving their offense and their goaltending situations. With a real lack of depth at goaltending and a precipitous dropoff after the top guys, there could be some tough issues to overcome. The Steelcats might be in for a rough year without some changes.

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New York Guardians

3021 points; 1 injured; Overall rank: 6th

+ In an offensive dogfight, this team will be hard to beat. (Pacioretty, Hartnell, Lupul, Wheeler, Alfredsson, Ladd)

+ Lots of capable production from tons of guys (Keith, Karlsson, Del Zotto, Coburn, Leddy).

+ Nice tandem in net with Miller and Brodeur, as both have experience and get lots of stats.

– Brodeur concerns vs. expectations. Will he be an average schmo or the playoff man?

– Will the offense outpace the need for blocked shots on this team?

– Dubinsky—will he shine or falter in a new location? And will Ennis bounce back?

Overall Ranks: 4/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Guardians have a well-rounded team that should be able to provide competition for many teams in the IceHL East. There isn’t a guy on the roster that can’t do his job and this team should be competitive enough to make the postseason. Whether or not it wins a division depends on Washington.

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Washington Sentinels

3075 points; 2 rookies; 1 injured, no replacement; Overall rank: 3rd

+ Gifts aplenty on the offense, with Stamkos and three 30-goal guys. (Ryder, Couture, Pominville)

+ Good top 4 with lots of balance between points and blocked shots. (Subban, Carlson, Girardi, Hamonic)

+ Nice duo of Howard and Price. Tons of starts and tons of potential for points.

– The double rookie spin. Kreider and Huberdeau must produce.

– Reproduction of performance--can Pominville, Ryder, Landeskog put the numbers up again?

– Will Price and Howard have teams in front of them that can produce and keep them up?

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Washington looks to be the top team in their division, with a killer bunch of players. The biggest concerns are in the forward corps, with guys needed to replicate their performance and others need strong debuts. Aside from those concerns, there’s nothing stopping Washington from making a pretty deep run.

MIDWEST DIVISION

Chicago Hitmen

2803 points; Overall rank: 13th

+ Strong top 6 forwards including two 30-goal scorers (Ryan, Kane) and balanced talent (Backes, Nugent-Hopkins, Zetterberg, Ray Whitney).

+ Solid shotblocking defense that can also put up some points (Bieksa, Leopold, Vlasic, Hamhuis, Green).

+ Gustavsson might get some opportunities, and Backstrom, when healthy, is decent.

– But, the absence of a true, healthy number one goaltender raises lots of concerns.

– A slight overinvestment in Vancouver's defense and the lack of a real number 1 guy is concerning.

– How will Dupuis and Clowe pan out? Clowe needs a bounceback and Dupuis needs a Crosby.

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 3/5
Playoffs: Chicago’s team has a recurring theme throughout most of its roster: quality guys, but not many stand-out guys. The offense is probably in the best shape, but the rest of the team lacks a true number one at either defensive of goaltending positions. The lack of a guy who can stand up might sink the Hitmen. They’re not entirely out of the picture, but they might be a frustrating spoiler team.

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Detroit Motorheads

3018 points; Overall rank: 7th

+ Decent offense that can put up the points (Burrows, Simmonds, Erat, Doan). Three 30-goal scorers lead the way (Spezza, Kessel, Sharp).

+ Tough defense with good PPN (Phaneuf, Giordano) and guys who will get new looks this year will benefit (Wisniewski, Salo, Spurgeon).

+ Interesting goaltender duo with Kiprusoff and Vokoun.

– But, how many starts will Vokoun poach from Fleury? That's a tough one right now.

– Will there be repeat performances from Spezza, Doan, and Sharp?

– What kind of looks will Spurgeon and Salo get?

Overall Ranks: 4/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Detroit’s roster looks competitive enough, but until we get to the track, we won’t know if all cylinders are firing. For now, the balanced offense, gritty defense and goaltending tandem with arguably one of the best non-starting goalies in the NHL should give the Motorheads enough gas to make it to the postseason. This team reminds me heavily of Minnesota, and the two should be fighting for the top spot in the division.

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Milwaukee Lagers

2844 points; 1 injured; Overall rank: 11th

+ Solid base on offense with good balance (Kopitar, Nash, Neal, P. Kane, Okposo).

+ Nice balance on defense between points/blocked shots (Letang, Shattenkirk, Fowler, Faulk, Gilbert).

+ Niemi is solid, and Crawford should make for a good backup.

– Present injuries to Nash, Setoguchi, Kesler and Voracek take a HUGE bite out of the offense.
– Is Crawford the man in Chicago?
– How much will Gilbert and Turris benefit from full seasons in new territories?

Overall Ranks: 3.83/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: The Lagers are in good position to be a successful team. Most of the pieces are there, but the elephant in the room is the early decimation of the offense with all of the injuries. They’re going to need to recover soon to make it in the division. Milwaukee has a shot, but their offense needs to get back in action to make it more realistic.

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Minnesota Mammoths

3062 points; 1 rookie; Potential rank: 5th place

+ Potent offense leaves little question about the scoring ability of the Mammoth (Callahan, Moulson, Toews, Bergeron, Pavelski).

+ Strong, balanced defense with few concerns at the blueline (Carle, Garrison, Liles, Harrison, Stuart).

+ Smart tandem in net with Fleury and Lindback. Guarantee vs. projected starter balance.

– But if Lindback doesn't prove himself, there could be some issues.

– What kind of value does Yakupov have? Will Toews return to form?

– Tough to pick on the defense, but how will new destinations for Garrison and Carle work out?

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Minnesota should make it as the division winner in the Midwest. If they don't, they should come in 2nd in the Midwest and still make it in the postseason. Their biggest competition comes in the form of the Motorheads, who have a solid squad built similarly to the Mammoths.