Stat Junkie 2: AHL Final Edition

Before we begin on this edition of Stat Junkie, I would like to thank everyone who read the last edition of SJ. Seeing the amount of praise that the post got on Twitter was awesome, so once again, thank you, and I hope you enjoy this next edition of Stat Junkie.

As we've wrapped up the regular season, I found it more fitting to go back and look at the statistics that each team accrued through both parts of the season. While stats are always changing during the regular season, once you're looking at final results, you really get a better picture of whom over- or under-performed.

So, with this post, we're looking back at the first part of the season, when the IceHL relied on the services of the AHL during the NHL lockout. This part of the season lasted for 12 weeks and utilized some different stats than were tracked in the NHL portion of the season.

To reflect this, each category on the spreadsheet was modified to include the different stats. Below is a changelog when compared to the first Stat Junkie post.

-Offense saw the addition of PIMs to its pool of stats (goals and assists). Offense is more of a reflection of what the combined roster of skaters did rather than differentiate between offense and defense.
-Goaltending did not change, as we tracked the same two statistics--goalie wins and shutouts.
-Opportunist and Defense were removed from this post, due to those stats (game-winning/power play goals, and points allowed/blocked shots) not being tracked during this portion of the season.
-The addition of the points column (in GOLD) allow you to see the total points a team put up in the season as well as their projected average across the 12 weeks of play. This will be added in on the 3rd Stat Junkies post (more details on that later).
-Also, the TOTAL column (in PURPLE) will read differently, so we'll explain how that one works.

Also, here's an explanation of how points are accrued on this scale:
 
-Teams were ranked on a 1-16 scale for a selected stat.
-Points were assigned to these values, 16 points for 1st place, 15 for 2nd place, and so on until 1 point was awarded for 16th place.
-Ties were settled by taking the point total of the positions taken up by the tie and averaging them among the teams involved. (EXAMPLE-A three-way tie for 6th place would involve 3 teams, the next available position being 9th. Thus, we take points from 6th, 7th and 8th place (11, 10 and 9), add them up (30) and split them among the teams, so each team would get 10 points.)
-The maximum points a team could receive in each stat pool is 48 on offense and 32 on goaltending.
-The Overall end ranking is a cumulative score of the 2 groups, so the maximum number of points a team could have there is 80.
-Ties in the Overall end ranking were settled by who had higher ranks in any category, so if a team had two 1st place rankings, but the other has only one, the team with two wins the tie.

So, with that being said, let's dive in and see who reigned supreme in the AHL.


Offense: In the spreadsheet above, this category appears in RED.

While there seemed to be a consistent deviation from the top 8 in a category vs. the top 8 overall, there were some differences that were particularly striking, such as when a team was very far removed from the expectation--that is, when a team is placed 7th in the overall standings, you'd expect them to be around that in the given stats.

 -In goals scored in the West, just 2 of the top 8 teams in that stat were not in the top 8 of the league standings. Dallas and California were not within the top 8 of goals scored, while Alaska and New Orleans were. Dallas was on the outside of the top 8 in a tie for 9th, while California ranked in the bottom 4.
-With the East, 2 of the top 8 goal-scoring teams were not a part of the top 8 in the standings. Despite finishing the AHL season in 14th place, Milwaukee's offense ranked within the top 5. Montreal, the 9th place team, ranked 8th in goal scoring. Boston and Quebec, top-8 teams in the standings, ranked 10th and 15th respectively in goal-scoring.
-Assist-wise, 2 of the top 8 assist-getters weren't top 8 overall squads. Saskatoon and Vancouver displaced California and Boulder from the top 8 in this category, with the two Canadian teams finishing in the top 5. Saskatoon's 3rd place finish in assists was impressive considering its 13th place overall finish. California and Boulder finished 9th and 10th in assists, respectively.
-In the East, 3 of the top 8 overall teams didn't appear in the top 8 of assists. While Tampa Bay, New York and Quebec missed out (placing in a tie for 9th, 12th and 13th respectively), Milwaukee (7th-tied), Atlanta (7th-tied) and Hamilton (3rd) crashed the party.
-PIMs were all over the place, with 3 of the top 8 overall teams failing to be a top 8 PIM-gatherer. Winnipeg, Dallas and Edmonton (10th-tied, 13th and 15th, respectively) were outside of the picture, while Houston (4th), Calgary (1st) and Alaska (5th) managed to be a part of the top 8 in PIMs. Calgary's placement was most surprising, given its 15th-place overall finish.
-Out East, 3 of the top 8 PIM-gatherers weren't a part of the top 8 overall. St. Louis (9th), Tampa Bay (10th) and Chicago (15th) were displaced by Montreal (3rd), Hartford (6th) and Washington (7th).
-The best offense out West was a tie that involved the Winnipeg Winterhawks and Seattle Aviators, who earned 37 out of a possible 48 points. They were only one of two teams to break the 50-goal mark, the other being the St. Louis Archers. Meanwhile, the Aviators were one of 5 teams to break the 200-PIM mark.
-In the East, the North Carolina Nighthawks had the top offense, earning 43 of a possible 48 points. Their consistency was key in securing the top spot, as the Nighthawks finished in the top 5 in all three stats. The St. Louis Archers, the other team who scored more than 50 goals on the season, finished 2nd in the East.

 
IceAHL Offense WEST:
Gold: TIE-Winnipeg Winterhawks and Seattle Aviators, with 37 points
Silver: Portland Pioneers, with 33 points
Bronze: Edmonton Kodiaks, with 32.5 points

IceAHL Offense EAST:
Gold: North Carolina Nighthawks, with 43 points
Silver: St. Louis Archers, with 39 points
Bronze: Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 34.5 points
 

Goaltending: In the spreadsheet above, this category appears in BLUE.

As was the case with the first Stat Junkie, there's a ton of tiering in goaltending. It's the nature of the position, and due to the limited bend a stat has, it's more of an expectation of goaltending to be more tiered. Stats are more dynamic in offense because you can have those nights where you get a range of values. Goaltending--you either got the win or you didn't, or you got the shutout or you didn't. Only four real possible outcomes in goaltending, far more in offense.

 -In the West, the teams with the most goaltending wins were the Alaska and Houston, both sporting 15 wins apiece. They were two of four teams who averaged more than one win per week, the others being Boulder and Northwest, each with 13 wins.
-Meanwhile, the East goaltending wins leaders were Tampa Bay and Chicago, both earning 15 wins. Interestingly enough, the four teams in the IceHL that had 15 wins owned the same two goalies: David Leggio for Houston and Chicago and Dustin Tokarski for Alaska and Tampa Bay.
-In shutouts, the West was carried by Dallas and Calgary, who both had 4 shutouts to their credit.
-In the East, shutouts were most frequent for New York; they were the only team with 5 shutouts.
-Overall, the West's top goaltending belonged to the Dallas Outlaws, earning 27.5 points out of 32. They edged out the Alaska Huskies by half a point.
-In the East, the best overall goaltending belonged to the New York Guardians, with 30 points out of a possible 32. They beat the second-place Tampa Bay Barracudas by 3.5 points, more than double the gap between 1st and 3rd in the West.

IceAHL Goaltending WEST:
Gold: Dallas Outlaws, with 27.5 points
Silver: Alaska Huskies, with 27 points
Bronze: Calgary Cavalry, with 25.5 points

IceAHL Goaltending EAST:
Gold: New York Guardians, with 30 points
Silver Tampa Bay Barracudas, with 26.5 points
Bronze: Milwaukee Lagers, with 24 points


Points Breakdown: In the spreadsheet above, this category appears in GOLD.

This stat has no bearing on the overall awards given in the post, but is rather a way to see how many points a team posted in the season and their average output on a weekly basis.

-2 teams in the West (Seattle and Winnipeg) and 3 teams in the East (New York, North Carolina and St. Louis) posted weekly averages of more than 50 points per game.

 
Overall: In the spreadsheet above, this category appears in PURPLE.

What you see on this spreadsheet is the cumulative totals of all the stats, which determines the best teams. The R Rank column shows the placement the team came in during the season. The Differential column shows the difference from their finish on paper. A positive differential means the team had a placement on paper better than in the league, while a negative differential says the opposite--they did worse on paper than they did in the real season.

 -Taking top honors as the best overall team in the West, the Dallas Outlaws won with 52 points out of a possible 80. While their offense was fairly average, their stellar goaltending made up the difference.
-Meanwhile, the best team out East was the New York Guardians, with 61.5 points out of 80. Winning the goaltending category certainly didn't hurt, but neither did their 4th place finish in offense. Those strong showings combined to show that Guardians were not a team to be trifled with in the East.
-In 2nd place in the West, the Alaska Huskies and Regina Renegades both finished with identical 50.5 point finishes. But due to Alaska having a higher ranking in any category (with a 1st-place tie in goaltending wins), the Huskies take the number two spot out West.
-In the East, 2nd place belonged to the Tampa Bay Barracudas, with 54.5 points. Tampa Bay's consistency gave it enough points to grab a spot on the overall podium, and its consistency made them a force to be reckoned with.
-Taking 3rd in the West was the Regina Renegades, with 50.5 points. Regina lost a tie with Alaska, but had strong showings in their offense, giving them a 4-point edge over their nearest competition.
-Out East, 3rd place belonged to the North Carolina Nighthawks, with 50.5 points. While their offense was superior, their goaltending left a lot to be desired, as only one team came behind them in that statistic.

IceAHL Overall WEST:
Gold: Dallas Outlaws, with 52 points
Silver: Alaska Huskies, with 50.5 points
Bronze: Regina Renegades, with 50.5 points

IceAHL Overall EAST:
Gold: New York Guardians, with 61.5 points
Silver: Tampa Bay Barracudas, with 54.5 points
Bronze: North Carolina Nighthawks, with 50.5 points

IceHL Recap: Week 22

As the regular season wraps up, Sharpshooters GM and IceHL Podcast host Tony Pomposelli breaks down the final week of action and previews the first round playoff match-ups.

Recorded 3/31/13

Music from Overclocked Remix. Opening: Duality by Dr. Manhattan. Interlude: On the Highway by Dominic Ninmark. Closing: Tuck n' Roll by The Overclocked Plaid Muffins. All tracks from the album Mega Man X: Maverick Rising.

IceHL Recap: Week 21

With only one more week remaining in the regular season, Week 21 was pivotal week for many teams seeking to improve their standings in the IceHL. See who came out on top and even clinched their seed on this week's IceHL Recap with Sharpshooters GM and IceHL Podcast host Tony Pomposelli.

Special thanks to Mammoths GM Matt Riegler.

Recorded 3/24/13

Music provided by Shinesparkers. Opening: Ashes to Ashes by Zircon. Interlude: Parasite X by Mazedude. Closing: Omega Cannon by VikingGuitar. All tracks can be found on the Metroid tribute album, Harmony of a Hunter.

IceHL Recap: Week 20

Week 20 of the IceHL regular season has concluded. And with only two weeks left before the playoffs, the action continues to heat up. Join IceHL Podcast host and Sharpshooters GM Tony Pomposelli as he recaps last week's match-ups and previews this week's!

Recorded 3/17/13

Music provided by OverClocked Remix. Intro: Anxiety (When's Marvel Mix) by Phonetic Hero. Interlude: Team Zwei by OA.  Closing: CTRL.FRK by Radiowar. All tracks from the album APEX 2013: Straight to the Top.

Stat Junkie: Who's On Top?

I love numbers.

As a sports fan, this is a very good thing that can be used to great advantage in a fantasy sports perspective. While most people love watching the game and getting into the game (don't get me wrong, I love that too), I'm always wondering what kinds of effects certain statistics have on a team's perception, and more importantly, how accurately do the numbers tell the whole story of a team?

It's why I love sports — the numbers are just a part of any given story.

So, I decided to grind out some calculations to determine what teams were considered the best in the IceHL's NHL portion of the season, not only to measure the teams against each other, but to answer one question: do the numbers support what is happening in the league?

While the AHL season was just as important, for the purposes of this exercise, we're sticking to one side of the league since points tracked are different for both. (But, if enough people are interested, we might do something like this for the AHL.)

So, here's an explanation of how the stats were calculated. These were calculated using the statistics at the conclusion of Week 19 of the IceHL season.

-A statistic was selected and each team was ranked on a 1-16 scale.
-Points were assigned to these values, 16 points for 1st place, 15 for 2nd place, and so on until 1 point was awarded for 16th place.
-Any ties within a ranking were settled by taking the average point total of the positions taken up by the tie and dividing them evenly among the teams involved. (EXAMPLE-A three-way tie for 6th place would involve 3 teams, the next available position being 9th. Thus, we take points from 6th, 7th and 8th place (11, 10 and 9), add them up (30) and split them among the teams, so each team would get 10 points.)
-Each stat was half of one group. The overall total points of stats are the combined scores in both stats, making the max number of points a team could earn in a given group 32.
-The Overall end ranking is a cumulative score of the 4 groups, so the maximum number of points a team could have there is 128.
-Ties in the Overall end ranking were settled by who had higher ranks in any category, so if a team had two 1st place rankings, but the other has only one, the team with two wins the tie.

Our groups were as follows:
Offense: Calculated with Goals and Assists
Defense: Calculated with Points Allowed and Blocked Shots
Goaltending: Calculated with Wins and Shutouts
Special Teams/Opportunists: Calculated with Power Play Goals and Game-Winning Goals
Overall: Calculated with results from the above 4 categories


OFFENSE: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in RED.

Perhaps the most interesting stat of the bunch to work on, offense told us some very interesting tales about the IceHL.

-Of the top 8 in the league (again, NHL standings ONLY), two teams did not have ranks that corresponded to the top 8 in goals out in the West. Saskatoon ranks 3rd in the NHL, but 13th in goals. That disparity is among the biggest in terms of difference between goals scored and rank out West. Calgary ranks 4th in the NHL, but only 11th in goals. The two teams not in the picture? Boulder (11th in NHL, 5th in goals) and Portland. (10th in the NHL, 2nd in goals)
-In terms of the East, two teams in the top 8 didn't have goals to match--Boston and Tampa Bay, both of whom were interestingly tied for 11th. The two teams with top-8 goal scoring not in the top 8 are Hamilton (4th in goals, 9th in NHL) and Atlanta (8th in goals, 14th in NHL). Boston's 7-position difference between goals and NHL record is the highest disparity in the East.
-Assist-wise, teams that hovered near the bottom of the rankings tended to have higher assists, as 12th-ranked New Orleans had the most assists. 16th-place Seattle managed to come behind only New Orleans, Vancouver and Edmonton. Right behind Seattle? Salt Lake City. Only three of the top 8 teams had assists in correspondence with the top 8. Of the 5 that didn't (California, Alaska, Dallas, Northwest and Calgary), no team ranked higher than 10th in assists. Alaska's team had the lowest assists in the West.
-In the East, three teams within the top 8 didn't have top 8 assist stats. The top three teams of Washington, North Carolina and Minnesota were ranked 9th, 10th and 11th in assists. Inside the top 8 of assists but outside of the top 8 in the conference were Quebec, Hartford and Hamilton. Hamilton was tied for 7th with St. Louis.
-With the West, the winner was the Vancouver Lumberjacks, earning 28 of a possible 32 points. Vancouver came in 4th place in goals scored and 2nd place in assists.
-In the East, the undisputed best offense was Milwaukee, taking top honors in both goals and assists. The Lagers won both categories by 2 over the 2nd place teams.

IceHL West Offense:
Gold: Vancouver Lumberjacks, with 28 points
Silver: Winnipeg Winterhawks, with 26.5 points
Bronze: Portland Pioneers, with 25.5 points

IceHL East Offense:
Gold: Milwaukee Lagers, with 32 points
Silver: Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 28 points
Bronze: Hamilton Steelcats, with 22.5 points


DEFENSE: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in BLUE.

Defense proved to be another interesting race to track, with both conferences boasting two very different races.

-In the West, 6 of the top 8 teams based on NHL records were in the top 8 of points allowed, with Northwest and Vancouver being the exceptions. Seattle (16th) and Portland (10th) were the two teams in the top 8 of points allowed (4th and 6th-Tied, respectively) while being outside of the top 8 NHL teams.
-Eastern teams within the top 8 were split in half, as only 4 teams inside the top 8 were among the 8 best points allowed. The 4 teams that were outside of that? Baltimore, Milwaukee, St. Louis and Boston. Only Baltimore was ranked outside of the bottom 3 teams.
-7 of the top 8 teams in the West were ranked within the top 8 of blocked shots, with Winnipeg being the only exception, ranking in the bottom 3 of shots blocked. Edmonton (9th in the NHL) ranked 7th in blocked shots.
-Out East, 6 of the top 8 teams based on their NHL records were in the top 8 of blocked shots. Milwaukee and Boston were the two exceptions, placing 12th and 9th place, respectively. 13th-place Chicago placed 5th in terms of blocked shots, while 14th-place Atlanta ranked 7th.
-The top 4 teams in the West were separated by only two points, and there was a tie for first in the West with Calgary and Alaska, with 28 points. The gap between the top 4 teams in the West is smaller than the gap between 1st and 2nd in the East.
-The North Carolina Nighthawks unanimously won the rights to be called "Best Defense" after having both the lowest points allowed and most blocked shots. They scored 32 out of a possible 32 points.

IceHL West Defense:
Gold: TIE-Alaska Huskies and Calgary Cavalry, with 28 points
Silver: Saskatoon Sharpshooters, with 27 points
Bronze: California Wave, with 26 points

IceHL East Defense:
Gold: North Carolina Nighthawks, with 32 points
Silver: Washington Sentinels, with 27 points
Bronze: Chicago Hitmen, with 25 points


GOALTENDING: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in GREEN.

Of the stats tracked, goaltending was probably the most tiered in that there were tons of statistical ties in tracking wins and goaltending shutouts.

-In the West, the top team with goaltending wins was the 9th-ranked Edmonton Kodiaks, sporting 20 goaltending wins. No other team in the West or East has as many wins.
-East's top ranked goalie wins team was the Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 18. Baltimore's 18 would be good for 4th in the entire IceHL, as Edmonton (20), Winnipeg and New Orleans (19 each) have more.
-5 teams had three shutouts in the West: New Orleans, Saskatoon, Alaska, Boulder and Houston.
-Baltimore leads the East and the entire IceHL with 4 shutouts.
-The West's goaltending was won by New Orleans, with 28.5 points out of 32.
-Out East, the Baltimore Blue Crabs won the goaltending categories unanimously with 32 points out of 32.

IceHL West Goaltending:
Gold: New Orleans Gators, with 28.5 points
Silver: Alaska Huskies, with 25.5 points
Bronze: Winnipeg Winterhawks, with 23.5 points

IceHL East Goaltending:
Gold: Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 32 points
Silver: Milwaukee Lagers, with 25 points
Bronze: Washington Sentinels, with 24.5


OPPORTUNISTS: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in ORANGE.

With opportunists, I decided to track power play goals and game winning goals for this, making it a partial blend of skill-based stats and special teams. Lots of ties out here, too, but there was less tiering than in goaltending.

-Out West, 3 of the top 8 teams record-wise did not make an appearance in the top 8 of power play goals scored. Calgary, Alaska and Vancouver didn't make the cut with their power play goals, while New Orleans, Portland and Boulder did.
-3 of the top 8 teams out East failed to make the top 8 power play goals as well, those teams being North Carolina, Tampa Bay and Boston. Making the cut instead were Hamilton, Montreal and Detroit.
-With game-winning goals, half of the top 8 teams by NHL record were not in the top 8 of game-winners. Saskatoon, Alaska, Northwest and Dallas were not in the pack. Interestingly, all but Dallas are in the same division. These four were beaten out by New Orleans, Edmonton, Portland and Boulder.
-Meanwhile in the East, 3 teams in the top 8, including the top of Washington and North Carolina, were not among the top 8 in game-winning goals. (Tampa Bay being the 3rd) Shockingly, the three teams that replaced them were the 3 best teams in this statistic: Hamilton (1st with 17) and the duo of Atlanta and Quebec. (2nd-Tied with 15 each)
-Winning the opportunist award out West, the Winnipeg Winterhawks clinched it with a perfect 32 out of 32, leading in both categories. Their victory was by 3.5 points, a margin larger than the gap separating the top 4 teams out East. (just 2 points)
-In the East, the Milwaukee Lagers won the award with 27 out of 32 points. Minnesota and St. Louis tied with 25.5 points, and the North Carolina Nighthawks were just half a point behind.

IceHL West Opportunists:
Gold: Winnipeg Winterhawks, with 32 points
Silver: Portland Pioneers, with 28.5 points
Bronze: California Wave, with 27 points

IceHL East Opportunists:
Gold: Milwaukee Lagers, with 27 points
Silver: TIE-Minnesota Mammoths and St. Louis Archers, with 25.5 points
Bronze: North Carolina Nighthawks, with 25 points


OVERALL: On the spreadsheet, this category appears in PURPLE.

-In summation, the Winnipeg Winterhawks won as the best team out West, earning 100 points out of a possible 128. While their defense could be considered their weak point, the fact that Winnipeg appeared on the podium in the other 3 stat groups more than made up for their defensive deficiencies.
-Out east, the Baltimore Blue Crabs won top honors with 105.5 points. While only making the podium twice, the Blue Crabs were in the race in nearly every statistic, making this team dangerous.
-Perhaps the single most fascinating team to study was the team that takes 2nd best team out West: the New Orleans Gators, earning 91 points. A large gap in defense was their lowest category, but in every other one, the Gators were exceeding expectations. This is a team that on paper, is way outperforming its present 12th place standing.
-Getting silver out East was the Milwaukee Lagers, earning 91 points. Their two top finishes in Opportunist and in Offense, in addition to their 2nd place finish in Goaltending were enough to hide the team's largest deficiency: defense, where the team was tied for worst defense with Detroit, and with Regina out West for the worst defense in the IceHL.
-The California Wave takes the bronze medal for the West with 84 points. Unlike the teams ahead of the Wave in both conferences, California's biggest shortcomings came on Offense (where they were the middle of the pack) and goaltending (a bottom 5 squad). But their defense and opportunity-seizing team is enough to give them a spot on this podium.
-In 3rd for the East is the Washington Sentinels, earning 87.5 points. The Sentinels ranked somewhat low in Opportunist (bottom 5) but managed respectable finishes in all other stats, making the Sentinels a balanced and fierce threat.

IceHL West Overall:
Gold: Winnipeg Winterhawks, with 100 points
Silver: New Orleans Gators, with 91 points
Bronze: California Wave, with 84 points

IceHL East Overall:
Gold: Baltimore Blue Crabs, with 105.5 points
Silver: Milwaukee Lagers, with 91 points
Bronze: Washington Sentinels, with 87.5 points