IceHL Recap: Week 19

This week, Icethetics introduces a new mini-show from Sharpshooters GM and IceHL Podcast host Tony Pomposelli. He'll be recapping the week's IceHL action and previewing the upcoming matchups. Look for new episodes at the beginning of every week through the playoffs!

Recorded 3/10/13

Music provided by OverClocked Remix. Intro: The Might of Baron by Audio Fidelity from Final Fantasy IV: Echoes of Betrayal, Light of Redemption. Interlude: Thunderstruck by Big Giant Circles and Jeff Ball from 25 Year Legend: A Legend of Zelda Tribute Album. Closing: A Ultima Carimbada by 8 Bit Instrumental, from Super Dodge Ball: Around the World.

Conflicts of Interest

And there it was again, that familiar twinge of angst and turmoil over whether or not to accept a proposed offer that probably does make my team better, but it sacrifices the comfort in not having to root for direct opponents. 

Currently, between the two teams I care most about this season, I have five players that also compete in my Rangers' Atlantic division. In addition, I have several more players whom I more or less described as high-risk just because of their home city in my previous article. Mix in the the fact that this year's scoring leaders are a bit screwy, Keith Aucoin is numerically more valuable than Phil Kessel through the first 20 of 99 days of the season and you have yourself a conundrum or three.

But what if this is just an anomalous year? What if this is the year where Daniel Winnik continues to outpace John Tavares and Alex Edler over Sidney Crosby and that's just the way it will be? What can you do as an owner do to help combat anomalies?

First, the angst of owning a rival's player needs to be thrown out the window. Yes, this is an anomalous year and you have to stick to not just what you know but what you believe. Yes, I believe that Matt Moulson will be more valuable than both Sedins combined this year because reasons X, Y, Z. 

Second, who's in prime position to capitalize this season? The growing trend, one I'm surprised the Penguins don't employ more frequently, is to load up with a super line during even strength. The Rangers, Oilers, Stars (prior to Whitney's injury), Bruins, Senators, Sabres, Bolts, Hawks, Canucks and Ducks all form a hero-line with their top three offensive threats. Some like the Sabres and Rangers only win when they succeed, while others like the Hawks and Canucks have found additional ways. Of course some teams like the Bruins and Ducks have recently mixed up their top-six, but that doesn't seem like a lasting trend given how dominant they can be with all three on the same line. 

Herein lies the trick though: teams like the Bruins, Hawks, Ducks, Oilers and Bolts are deep enough for two dynamic scoring lines. If/when they split, you want the David Krejcis, Viktor Stalbergs, Daniel Winniks, and other No. 6 forwards getting time with all-stars and future hall of famers — and that's nothing new. That's standard year-to-year regardless, but this year's compressed schedule has simply made them more valuable. 

So get out there and mine for the hot players you can ride, the cold stars you can scoop up for tier-two career year performers, and drop the guys who just ain't cutting it and don't have enough trade value because we don't trade picks.

There are 110 players ahead of Henrik Sedin's 14 total fantasy points in the IceHL EAST, 109 in the WEST currently on the free agent wire coming into Thursday night's games. You tell me which is the anomaly. 

Philosophical Hedging

Every season brings on new considerations, new guarantees and possibilities that hopefully lead to success. In the vaunted IceHL, within a truncated season no less, fantasy success seems as attainable as it is fragile.

Are twilight-year veterans like Jagr, Alfredsson and notorious slow-starter Iginla going to be helped by the lockout? How about neophytes like Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, and Karlsson? Surely a compacted schedule effects them least of all.

Truth is, as it always does in sports, chemistry and luck will have a bigger impact than we can (or care to) quantify. That's why you should hedge your bets this season. Three games in four nights for ten weeks — or in other words, 48 games in 99 days, plus playoffs is torture for anyone. Travel will matter more than ever, especially for teams near the Central and Eastern Time Zone lines. That's why players in Dallas, Winnipeg, Minnesota, Denver, Vancouver, Alberta and Florida are particularly ominous to own. (Full disclosure — I have six such players. Wanna trade?) Give me just Kessel and Giroux over the Sedins, Parise, Benn and the rest of the farflung stars combined. And we haven't even discussed defensemen or goalies yet.

Speaking of which, need a tender? Don't worry about it. As long as his team makes the playoffs, he'll score enough points. But be sure to have a solid backup on hand in case he breaks down.

I think it's also important to note how important chemistry plus opportunity will be this season. Can't produce if they're not out there, right? Prime minutes mean everything this year, including special teams time.

Want to know how I'm managing this year? By being aggressively shrewd. Mining for opportunities with chemistry and luck while limiting detrimental factors. That's where the point-multipliers lie. That's what'll be lead to fantasy success.

The Sharpshooter Press: The Draft – Week 7

Hey there, it's Tony P. from the Sharpshooters. Enjoying the season so far?

I'd like to welcome you to the first season recap so far of the Sharpshooters.

I plan on doing these at juncture marks in the season, about every 6-8 weeks, to give you an inside perspective on the season so far.

This post covers everything that happened to the team from the Draft to Week 7.

Draft

With our draft, we focused on blending areas that would be looked at. So we drafted these players, based on their stats from last season.

Chris Bourque: 27 G, 66 A, 42 PIM
Matt Fraser: 37 G, 18 A, 45 PIM
Emerson Etem: 62 G, 46 A, 36 PIM

Radko Gudas: 7 G, 13 A, 195 PIM
Danny Syvret: 7 G, 35 A, 24 PIM

Danny Taylor: 43 GP, 22 W, 5 SO

The inital vision was relatively simple.

• Fraser and the untested Etem were counted on for goals. Fraser's stats looked nice. Etem, while a wild card, showed he had potential with Medicine Hat.
• Bourque and Syvret were our main assist machines. Bourque had the potential for goals, but 66 assists was massive. Same with the 35 that Syvret, a defenseman, scored.
• Gudas was the PIM man, seeing as he outgained the roster in PIM just by himself.
• Taylor just needed to win. He was what was left.

Week 1: Hellraising Huskies

Playing against the Alaska Huskies was the moment I'd been waiting for. It was the start of the season, and the preseason game looked good for us. There was optimism that things were going well.

And then the week happened. Notably, I didn't have a great opportunity to check stats until the end of the week, and I was still positive things worked out well. Until I found out our team was the only team who failed to break double digits. We were crushed by 50 points.

My strategy partially imploded. The assists worked, as Bourque and Syvret scored 3 assists combined. But that was it. Etem went MIA, Gudas was scratched all week, Fraser faltered in Texas and Taylor added nothing to the pot after losing a game in an SO.

Changes were made swiftly, with Etem and Gudas leaving in favor of Ondrej Palat and Sami Vatanen. Palat had been scoring quite well and Vatanen, like Etem, was a chance I wanted to take in a lesser role.

Week 2: Vancouver Vexation

Much different than Week 1, as we actually were in it up until the end of the week. The most-improved team in the IceHL that week was the Sharpshooters, but we still fell short to the Lumberjacks, 47-38.

Bourque's 10 points were great. So were Syvret's 9. Taylor had gotten a win for 6. Palat's 5 points were slightly disappointing, but he showed promise by putting points in assists and PIMs. Vatanen's 4 would usually not be heralded well, but it was a goal, so it was worth a smile. Fraser's only goal would be the only goal he would score for us, as Chris Conner was brought in. Syvret, while reliable, was dumped in favor of Marco Scandella, a risky trigger move.

Week 3: Dallas Destruction

Ouch. Week 1 returned in style, with the Sharpshooters getting eviscerated by the Outlaws, 42-19. Strong weeks from the Outlaws' Sean Couturier and Keith Aucoin did us in, with the duo racking up 31 points.

Where'd we go wrong this time?

Bourque? Nope, give him another 10 points this week. Vatanen? Nope, with 6 points, he improved from the previous week. Palat? Well, he dipped a little, but gave us the rest of the offense for the week. Chris Conner, our newest acquisition had a short week with only one game. Annoying, but not his fault. Scandella? SCRATCHED THE WEEK. Trigger move failed. Taylor? No wins again. Let's find someone else.

Scandella was dropped for Steve McCarthy. Putting in claims for a pair of netminders was a failure. We were stuck with Danny Taylor.

Week 4: Pioneer Punch-Out

Another week led to a close competition against the Pioneers that led us to feel good about the week. We were tied going into the final night.

And then Cam Atkinson happened. OUCH. On the strength of 17 points from 5 assists and 2 PIM, Saskatoon fell once again by 9 points, this time to the Pioneers.

Shortfalls? Let's see.

Bourque? Somewhat of a lame week, with only 4 points. Palat? A solid 11 this week. Conner? 9 points, getting great action. Vatanen? 2 PIM. Rough, but let's see if he bounces back. McCarthy? 2 PIM and scratches. Taylor? A shutout win gets us 10! Maybe it was a good thing we ended up keeping him.

We decided on one transaction. McCarthy left. Gudas returned after putting up nice numbers for nobody. Would he bring them back to us next week against the defending champions in Boulder?

Week 5: Boulder Beatdown

And finally, a week that was very good to us happened. Interestingly, I've always considered 5 my lucky number. But seeing as we were going against the defending champions, my hopes were muted.

Until the end of the week when the team emerged...victorious!?

Conner? SCRATCHED. Taylor? DIDN'T PLAY. Those two facts alone would have usually been enough to knock me down. But Bourque had a goal, two assists and 6 PIMs for 16! Gudas nearly mirrored that line, just adding a PIM. 17 points in Gudas' return. Palat also added a goal and an assist for 7 points. Vatanen also chipped two assists for 6 points. Those 4 players gave us 46 points. The Beasts had an entire roster contributing, with Yann Danis getting 12 points as their leading scorer. No other Beast broke double digits.

It was enough to lift us out of our slump and give newfound life to the Sharpshooters. Conner would also leave the team due to wildly inconsistent play.

Week 6: Cavalry Crusher

Calgary was next, and sadly, they sported an 0-5 record. We had been in the same winless boat as them up until Week 5. We always like to see each team win, so we weren't going to be heartbroken if we lost.

That said, Saskatoon did put up their most dominant performance to date, having solid performances from most everyone.

Palat's 2 assists and 4 PIM gave him 10 points. Taylor also earned 10 points for a shutout goaltending win. Vatanen was the star of the week for Saskatoon, getting a goal and 12 PIMs for 16 points. Bourque and new acquisition Jeff Taffe each scored two assists. Finally, Gudas rounded off the week with 4 PIMs.

Calgary's tough week was marred by inconsistency by Roman Horak and Jake Gardiner. Their week was harsh, as they could have basically gone against any team (except Portland) and lost the week.

Week 7: Narwhal Knockout

Another close matchup, this one had me gritting my teeth until the final day. Taylor fell flat for a 4th week, seemingly a theme for him: a great week, followed by a non-existent one. Talk about frustrating.

Competition up to the final day only had us leading by one point.

Then, the final day happened.

Unfortunately, the team just couldn't stay in it, and the Narwhals took down the Sharpshooters thanks to the powers of Carter Hutton. While I'm not a fan of pinning wins or losses on certain players, Danny Taylor is about to take the fall for Saskatoon's 5th loss in 7 weeks. Given he's had relevance in 3 weeks, but only one of them was a win, it's time for someone new.

Dropping to 2-5 is certainly far from what we predicted to start the year, but the battle is just beginning.

IceHL EAST Predictions, Part II

With both leagues finally drafted and now in the midst of making moves, what better way to spend the time during the lockout by analyzing teams as if there were a real season coming up? You’ll find division-by-division breakdowns of all 16 teams in the EAST, with brief analyses of offensive, defensive and goaltending capabilities followed by my ratings.

Note: Potential rank is calculated using last year’s stats as the base with this year’s rosters. These, among other stats will be discussed in a future metrics post.

NORTHEAST DIVISION

Boston Colonials

2803 points; Overall rank: 10th

+ Malkin and Giroux on the same team? HOLY CRAP.

+ Stellar defense usually led by offensive production (J. Johnson, Goligoski, Ehrhoff, Pitkanen).

+ Ward and Halak is a good duo. Ward is the guy right away, Halak might be later.

– Roy, Heatley, Pitkanen and Halak are injury risks early on that could make a big difference.

– A lack of blocked shots on the defense. Sufficient enough O to overcome that?

– Skeptical on Kunitz and Larsson. Will Kunitz produce and can Larsson build?

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: The Colonials’ strong offensive headliners are enough to make most teams take notice of this squad, but unfortunately, depth is the thing that could sink the ship of Boston. They might make the playoffs, but they’re going to need the rest of the team to step up or a bubble team could nab their spot.

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Hartford Mariners

3066 points; 1 injured, no replacement; Overall rank: 4th

+ Quality top six guys with B. Richards, Thornton, Getzlaf, Lucic, Vrbata and Skinner.

+ Bryz and Theodore should be able to hang. They're the guys for now.

+ What defense is present is very solid (Whitney, Weber, Enstrom).

– But this team carries 4 defensemen and one is on IR. This will leave points out every night until fixed.

– Hudler, Mueller and Timonen are now concerns for injury.

– Jose Theodore: how long does that last?

Overall Ranks: 3.5/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3/5
Goalies: 3.5/5
Playoffs: The Mariners certainly don’t look like an expansion team and could definitely make a threat in their division, but their defense needs some fixing. Their goaltending could potentially sink them, but the biggest issue is the defense. This ranking is misleading, as if they were to fix their defense, they’d be closer to a 4. Given their divisional breakdown however, a playoff berth might not be out of the question.

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Montreal Olympiques

2854 points; 1 injured; Overall rank: 10th

+ Solid blend of strong forwards, including three 30-goal scorers (Perry, Kovalchuk and Clarkson) and two guys less than 5 goals short of that (Seguin and Selanne).

+ Alex Edler leads a balanced defense (Doughty, Myers, Kulikov, Voynov).

+ Hiller and Pavelec will garner enough starts to ensure someone is playing every night.

– That doesn't mean the goaltenders will get the wins, though.

– Defense, while balanced, lacks depth.

– Versteeg, Foligno and Hodgson present differing issues. Health, ability and reproduction of last season, respectively.

Overall Ranks: 3.83/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Montreal’s roster stands out as the most balanced in this relatively middle-of-the-road division. There’s no real standout team, but the offense is enough to potentially lift them over the rest of their foes. Their defense might give them some issues, but Montreal is (as of right now) best poised to take the division crown.

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Quebec Armada

2639 points; 1 rookie; 1 injured, no replacement; Overall rank: 16th

+ Great top six with lots of balance throughout (D. Sedin, J. Staal, Ribeiro, Cole, Brown, Krejci, Filppula).

+ Byfuglien and McDonaugh make for great pillars on the defense. Colaiacovo should be money too.

+ Nice goaltending tandem with Lundqvist and Holtby.

– While I'm a believer in Holtby, concerns exist about how long he'll be used.

– Riding the base 4 D is risky, especially when one of them is a rookie who is unproven (Hamilton).

– Hossa and Cole—will their injuries linger?

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 3/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: Quebec’s roster has lots of offensive firepower, but has some questions about their team that don’t exactly leave me a believer. Hamilton as a core-4 defenseman is very questionable, and while he’s not a full-blown rookie (but close enough to it), what can Sven Baertschi do? There’s not enough focus on defensive stats and this isn’t a team that can shoot its way out of everything. Playoffs are tough, but they could be a surprise.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

Atlanta Arsenal

3088 points; Overall rank: 2nd

+ Twin 30-goal scorers (Michalek, Marleau) highlight an offense with potential  (Flesichmann, Fisher, Malone, Little, Briere, Carter).

+ Capable defense when healthy (Beauchemin, Streit, Phillips, Bouwmeester). Gill should get some looks.

+ Nice goaltending duo with Rinne and Elliott. Rinne should be the lynchpin of the team.

– Concerns on defense with Gill and Beauchemin recoveries.

– Can Michalek repeat a healthy season?

– Slight concerns about Nashville investment. If they fall, all positions get hurt.

Overall Ranks: 4/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 4/5
Goalies: 4.5/5
Playoffs: With the team as drafted, Atlanta would stand a great chance to make the playoffs in almost any other division. That’s not to say they’re weak, just the rest of the division is that wild. Right now, the Arsenal is a bubble team that could pan out.

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North Carolina Nighthawks

3233 points; Overall rank: 1st

+ Strong offense that can put up points everywhere (E. Staal, Benn, Eberle, Vanek, Elias, Jagr).

+ Fun goaltending tandem: coming off a great season (Lehtonen) and guy who wants prove he's the guy (Dubnyk).

+ Potent shot-blocking defense (Gorges, Seabrook, Kuba, MacDonald, Seidenberg, Klein) poses few concerns.

– Dubnyk should be the guy in Edmonton. Does he have the abilities to be the man?

– Fielding only seven forwards. Two are Horton and Jagr. Early concerns if they don't work.

– No other major concerns. This team looks kinda scary.

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: A frighteningly built team, North Carolina certainly shows why they’re the defending champions. The team could sink if their offense doesn’t click, but this team has all the cards it should need to make it into the playoffs once again, if not go very deep.

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St. Louis Archers

2641 points; 2 rookies; 1 injured; Overall rank: 15th

+ Lots of high-average guys with points coming everywhere (Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Eriksson, Gaborik).

+ SOLID top 3 defense here with Pietrangelo, Kronwall and Nikitin.

+ Schneider/Smith is a nice tandem. Smith is the guy, helps alleviate concerns about Schneider.

– That said, Schneider is still a risky bet. Smith can only minimize that so much.

– The double rookie spin is always a risky tactic. Schultz and Tarasenko need to produce.

– Some real low producers on this team. (Boyes, Ekman-Larsson and Visnovsky)

Overall Ranks: 3.67/5
Offense: 3.5/5
Defense: 3.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: It’s not that St. Louis is a bad team, it’s that they’re not as good as the rest of their division. Too many low-production players on this roster make it difficult to endorse a playoff run in this shape. Moves can be made, and should be made to run for the postseason.

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Tampa Bay Barracudas

2995 points; 1 injured; Overall rank: 8th

+ Great utility out of pretty much the entire forward squad (St. Louis, Lecavalier, Weiss, Richards, Purcell, Parenteau, Glencross).

+ Badass defense. Everyone is a killer on there (Boyle, Suter, Smid, Hedman, Clark).

+ Anderson and Quick (Hedberg while Quick's out) is a solid tandem.

– BIG CONCERNS about the heavy investment in the Lightning (5/13 skaters).

– Hedberg hopefully is out the door when Quick is done on IR.

– David Booth's low PPN is a bother. But not more than the overinvestment in the Lightning.

Overall Ranks: 4.16/5
Offense: 4/5
Defense: 4.5/5
Goalies: 4/5
Playoffs: With a roster designed to get maximum efficiency out of every position, the Barracudas are quite well-positioned to make it into the playoffs, if not usurp the Nighthawks for the division crown. Expect the battle between those two to be very intense affairs. Tampa Bay looks like an early favorite for the division.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

1. North Carolina
2. Washington
3. Minnesota
4. Montreal
5. Tampa Bay
6. Detroit
7. New York
8. Atlanta
9. Milwaukee
10. Boston
11. Hartford
12. Baltimore
13. Chicago
14. St. Louis
15. Quebec
16. Hamilton